基于逻辑回归的若尔盖气象地质灾害预警研究

Research on Meteorological and Geological Disaster Warning in Zoige Based on Logistic Regression

选取若尔盖12个区域自动站逐时降水数据和欧洲中心ERA5-Land逐日降水数据,分析2007—2020年若尔盖发生的77起气象地质灾害,并采用相关分析、逻辑回归等方法,构建若尔盖气象地质灾害预警模型。结果表明:(1)若尔盖气象地质灾害大多发生在6—8月,合计占比为88%,尤以7月发生次数最多。(2)若尔盖气象地质灾害主要发生在求吉河流域的求吉乡、阿西镇、包座乡和白龙江流域的红星镇、降扎乡、占哇乡、铁布镇。(3)若尔盖气象地质灾害与前15日有效降水密切相关,相关系数高达0.6。(4)利用高差、坡度、距河流距离和前15日有效降水量,能构建预测准确率较高的逻辑回归模型,可对若尔盖气象地质灾害进行有效预测。

Based on the hourly precipitation data of 12 regional automatic stations in Zoige and the daily precipitation data of ERA5-Land in European Centre,77 meteorological geological disasters in Zoige from 2007 to 2020 were analyzed,and the early warning model of meteorological geological disasters in Zoige was constructed by means of correlation analysis and logistic regression.The results show that:(1) Most of the meteorological geological disasters in Zoige occurred from June to August,accounting for 88 % of the total,especially in July.(2) Zoige meteorological geological disasters mainly occurred in Qiuji Township,Axi Town,Baozuo Township in the Qiuji River Basin and Hongxing Town,Jiangzha Township,Zhanwa Township and Tiebu Town in the Bailong River Basin.(3) The meteorological geological disasters in Zoige were closely related to the effective precipitation in the first 15 days,and the correlation coefficient was as high as 0.6.(4) The logistic regression model with high prediction accuracy could be constructed by using the height difference,slope,distance from the river and the effective precipitation in the first 15 days,which could effectively predict the meteorological geological disasters in Zoige.