我国不同区域农业韧性水平的动态演变及其影响因素分析——基于农业保险赔付率视角

Analysis of the Dynamic Evolution and Influencing Factors of Agricultural Resilience From Different Regions in China——From Agricultural Insurance Compensation Ratio Perspective

农业是国家深化改革和国民经济行稳致远的基础,提高农业韧性对守好“三农”基本盘至关重要。论文以我国八大经济区域为研究对象,利用Dagum基尼系数分解法、Kernel核密度估计和Markov链方法考察我国农业韧性的动态演进规律,通过空间自回归(SAR)模型检验农业灾害冲击和农业保险赔付率等因素对我国农业韧性的影响。研究发现,2013-2021年我国农业韧性水平整体不断提高,各区域间农业韧性水平的差距逐渐缩小,但局部出现了农业韧性的中低水平集聚的趋势;空间上,农业韧性水平有明显的溢出效应,某地区农业韧性水平发展进程会显著地受到接邻地区农业韧性水平的影响;进一步分析发现,在农业灾害冲击下,农业保险赔付率提升有助于增强农业韧性水平。在当前极端天气频发、地缘政治冲突持续等影响粮食安全、农业高质量发展的不确定性因素增加的背景下,从保险视角研究农业韧性具有现实意义。

Agricultural stability is the foundation of national reform and economic stability and improving agricultural resilience is quite crucial to maintaining the base of"agriculture,rural areas and farmers".This article takes 31 provinces and cities in China as the research object,systematically investigates the spatial-temporal dynamic changes and influencing factors of agricultural resilience in China by using entropy method,Dagum Gini coefficient,Kernel density estimation,Markov chain,and use the spatial autoregressive(SAR)mode tested the impact of agricultural disasters and agricultural compensation ratios on agricultural resilience.The study found that the agricultural resilience in China continued to improve from 2013 to 2021,the gap of agricultural resilience levels among regions gradually narrowed,but there was a trend of low level agglomeration of agricultural resilience in some regions;In terms of space,agricultural resilience has a significant spillover effect,and the development process of agricultural resilience in a certain region will be significantly affected by the resilience of neighboring regions';Further analysis shows that under the impact of agricultural risk,improve the agricultural insurance payout ratio will be conducive to improving the level of agricultural resilience.Improving agricultural resilience is a long-standing task,and this article provides four relevant suggestions.Against the backdrop of frequent extreme weather and ongoing geopolitical conflicts,studying agricultural resilience from an insurance perspective is of practical significance.