数字经济对林业碳汇增量影响及路径研究——基于有调节的中介效应模型

Study on the Influence and Path of Digital Economy on Forestry Carbon Sink Increment——Based on the Moderated Mediation Model

林业碳汇作为减排的有效手段之一,对如期实现“双碳”目标具有重大意义。文章利用2011-2021年我国30个省份数据,使用有调节的中介效应模型、双向固定效应模型和系统广义矩估计法研究数字经济对林业碳汇增量的影响及实现路径。结果表明:(1)数字经济对林业碳汇增量产生正向影响,促进效应为0.85,异质性分析发现中部地区的促进效应大于东部和西部地区。(2)绿色金融在数字经济和林业碳汇增量之间具有中介效应,具体表现为数字经济正向影响绿色金融,绿色金融显著提升林业碳汇增量。(3)环境规制对林业碳汇增量具有负向调节作用,抑制效应为2.64。(4)环境规制对绿色金融的中介效应及其后半段路径产生负向调节作用,抑制效应分别为2.99和2.23,环境规制对绿色金融中介过程的前半段路径不产生调节作用。根据研究结论,文章提出政策启示:(1)促进数字技术普及和产业数字化转型,优化数字经济发展环境。(2)拓展绿色金融和绿色保险等金融商品,解决林业碳汇项目融资问题。(3)因地制宜实施适当的环境规制强度,提高环境规制效率。文章探讨数字经济和环境规制对林业碳汇增量的影响,为林业碳汇影响因素研究提供了新视角。

As one of the effective means of emission reduction,forestry carbon sink was of great significance to achieve the double carbon target as scheduled.This paper used the data of 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2021,by using the moderated mediation model,bidirectional fixed effect model and systematic generalized moment estimation method to study the influence and realization path.The results showed that:(1)Digital economy had a positive impact on forestry carbon sink increment,with the promotion utility of 0.85.The heterogeneity analysis showed that the promotion effect of the central region was greater than that of the eastern and western regions.(2)Green finance had a mediation effect between digital economy and forestry carbon sink increment,which was embodied that digital economy positively effected green finance,and green finance significantly improved forestry carbon sink increment.(3)Environmental regulation had a negative regulatory effect on forestry carbon sink increment,with an inhibitory effect of 2.64.(4)Environmental regulation had a negative regulatory effect on the mediation effect of green finance and the second half of the path,with the inhibitory effects of 2.99 and 2.23,respectively.Environmental regulation did not have a regulatory effect on the path of the first half of the mediation process of green finance.According to the research conclusion,the paper put forward some policy implications:(1)Promoting the popularization of digital technology and the digital transformation of industry,and optimizing the development environment of digital economy.(2)Expanding green finance,green insurance and other financial commodities to solve the financing problems of forestry carbon sink projects.(3)Implementing the appropriate intensity of environmental regulation according to local conditions and improving the efficiency of environmental regulation.This paper discussed the influence of digital economy and environmental regulation on forestry carbon sink increment,which provided a new perspective for the research on the influencing factors of forestry carbon sink.