运输成本、制造业集聚和生育率

Transportation Costs,Manufacturing Agglomeration and Fertility Rates

从替代效应的视角探究我国运输成本对生育率的影响。首先构建理论假设,运输成本降低带来的低价格商品会挤压家庭的生育数量,对家庭的生育选择产生替代作用,而集聚经济带来的收入效应会弱化这种替代作用,其次,通过数据实证理论假设的正确性。我国制造业集聚对运输成本和生育率的替代关系具有门槛调节作用。制造业集聚产生的收入效应会减弱运输成本与生育率的同向变化关系,当制造业集聚达到一定程度之后,运输成本和生育率的同向变化关系会转变为反向关系,即运输成本越低生育率越高。我国运输成本降低对生育选择具有替代作用,且制造业集聚对这种替代关系具有调节效应。

This paper explores the impact of transportation costs on fertility in China from the perspective of substitution effect.Firstly,the theoretical hypothesis was constructed that the low price commodities brought about by the reduction of transportation costs would squeeze the number of births of families and have a substitution effect on the family's birth choice,while the income effect brought about by the agglomeration economy would weaken this substitution effect.Secondly,the correctness of the theoretical hypothesis was empirically verified by data.China's manufacturing agglomeration has a threshold adjustment effect on the substitution relationship between transportation costs and fertility.The income effect of manufacturing agglomeration will weaken the same direction change relationship between transportation cost and fertility rate.When the manufacturing agglomeration reaches a certain degree,the same direction change relationship between transportation cost and fertility rate will change into a reverse relationship,that is,the lower the transportation cost,the higher the fertility rate.The reduction of transportation costs in China has a substitution effect on fertility choice,and manufacturing agglomeration has a moderating effect on this substitution relationship.