普惠金融与小微企业破产风险——来自小微支行设立的准自然实验

Financial Inclusion and the Bankruptcy Risks of Small and Micro Enterprises:A Quasi⁃natural Experiment of Setting up the Small and Micro Bank Branches

普惠金融能否缓解小微企业“融资难、融资贵”问题,减轻小微企业借贷市场信息不对称,最终降低其破产风险?为了回答这一问题,首先,本文构建了一个包含信息不对称的小微企业借贷市场模型,刻画了普惠金融和小微企业破产风险之间的理论传导机制。其次,本文基于小微支行设立这一准自然实验,使用多时点渐进双重差分法,实证检验了普惠金融对小微企业破产率的影响。结果表明:(1)普惠金融能显著降低小微企业的破产率。具体来说,若县区内新设立小微支行,该县区内小微企业的破产率下降约36%。(2)机制检验发现,小微支行的设立能缓解借贷双方的信息不对称程度、减轻小微企业的融资约束,进而降低小微企业破产率。(3)拓展性分析则发现,金融科技创新能起到强化小微支行降低小微企业破产率的效果。本文的研究为如何发展普惠金融,以支持小微企业发展、助力实体经济、维护宏观经济稳定提供了经验证据和政策启示。

In recent years,the financing problems for small and micro enterprises(SMEs)have been highlighted,and bankruptcy risks of SMEs have risen,which exerts a significant effect on the stability of China's real economy.Against this background,the Chinese government has focused on promoting the development of financial inclusion and improving the coverage of,accessibility to and satisfaction with financial services.One of the important initiatives was to encourage commercial banks to set up small and micro branches(SMBs)by the China Banking Regulatory Commission(CBRC)at the end of 2013.Compared with traditional bank branches,SMBs have many advantages and preferential policies in serving SMEs,such as clear focus,flexible mechanism,and simple approval process.In addition,the gradual establishment of SMBs in different regions at different times provides empirical conditions for causal identification and accurate assessment of the policy effects of financial inclusion.In the existing literature,there is no unanimous conclusion on whether financial inclusion can solve the problem of financing constraints and better support the survival and development of SMEs.On the one hand,the development of financial inclusion can help reduce the financing costs of SMEs;but on the other hand,it may also trigger excessive borrowing and investment.The key lies in whether financial inclusion policies can effectively overcome the problems of adverse selection and moral hazard caused by information asymmetry.Furthermore,whether Fintech innovation can contribute to the mitigating effect of financial inclusion on the bankruptcy risks of SMEs is also an important topic to study.In view of the above analysis,this research tries to answer the following core questions:can the development of financial inclusion reduce the bankruptcy rate of SMEs?If the answer is yes,what is the underlying mechanism?In addition,does Fintech innovation play a positive role in it?Answering these questions is of great theoretical and practical significance for the development of financial inclusion,the enhancement of the quality and efficiency of financial services to the real economy,and the support of the survival and development of SMEs.This paper constructs an information asymmetry model of SMEs'lending market,and portrays the theoretical mechanism between financial inclusion and SMEs'bankruptcy risks.In addition,it comprehensively utilizes macro and micro data such as enterprise bankruptcy data,enterprise registration data,commercial bank branch data,and ORBIS China enterprise data,and empirically tests the impact of financial inclusion on the bankruptcy rate of SMEs based on the quasi⁃natural experiment of the establishment of SMBs using the staggered difference⁃in⁃differences(DID)method.The results of the study show that(1)financial inclusion can significantly reduce the bankruptcy rate of SMEs.Specifically,if a new SMB is established in a county,the bankruptcy rate of SMEs in that county will decrease by about 36%.This finding passes such robustness tests as parallel trend test,placebo test,substitution of core variables,elimination of heterogeneity treatment effect,exclusion of confounding factors,and addition of control variables.(2)The mechanism test shows that the establishment of SMBs can reduce the information asymmetry between borrowers and lenders,alleviate the financing constraints of SMEs,and thus lower the bankruptcy rate of SMEs.(3)Further analysis shows that Fintech innovation can assist SMBs in reducing the bankruptcy rate of SMEs,which supports the important role of fintech in promoting the development of financial inclusion.The research in this paper provides empirical evidence and policy insights on how to develop financial inclusion to support the development of SMEs,boost the real economy,and maintain macroeconomic stability.First,it is essential to actively promote the development of financial inclusion and encourage commercial banks to continue to deepen the construction of financial service systems for SMEs.Second,SMEs in specific industries with high information asymmetry and greater financing difficulty should be given more preferential financial support.Third,it is necessary to steadily advance Fintech innovation in commercial banks.