人口老龄化与外部失衡:基于结构转型视角

Population Aging and External Imbalance:From the Perspective of Structural Transformation

文章通过构建一个两部门世代交叠模型,从理论上探讨人口老龄化、结构转型和外部失衡三者的关系,并对48个国家1975~2019年的跨国面板数据进行实证检验,从结构转型视角探究了人口老龄化因素对一国外部失衡程度的影响。研究表明,在全球老龄化进程加速推进的背景下,老年抚养比的上升总体上会提高一国的对外净资产水平。各国老龄化群体对非贸易品部门商品需求的增加和对劳动力供给的降低会通过需求构成渠道和成本推动渠道提高非贸易品对贸易品的相对价格,从而促进一国经济结构转型,相对价格的变化则会影响进出口,使得经常账户余额减少以及一国对外净资产水平的降低。文章提出,中国仍需警惕由人口老龄化导致的经常账户顺差收窄和对外净资产减少,以及由此带来的国际收支脆弱性和潜在的金融风险。

By constructing a two-sector overlapping generations model,this paper provides theoretical insights into the relationship among population aging,structural transformation and external imbalance,and empirically tests the cross-country panel data of 48 countries from 1975 to 2019,exploring the impact of population aging factors on a country's external imbalance from the perspective of structural transformation.The research indicates that in the context of accelerating the global aging process,the rise of old dependency ratio generally increases the level of a country's net foreign assets.The growing demand of aging groups for nontradable goods and the decrease of labor supply in each country will increase the relative price of non-tradables to tradables through demand composition channel and cost-pushing channel,thus promoting the structural transformation of a country's economy.The changes in relative prices affect imports and exports,leading to a reduction in the current account balance and net foreign assets.Therefore,in the long run,China stil needs to be cautious about vulnerability in its balance of payments and potential financial risks brought by the narrowing of current account surplus and the reduction of foreign net assets.