新疆洪水预报预警中融雪径流模型应用进展

Application of snowmelt runoff model in flood forecasting and warning in Xinjiang

针对全球变化背景下极端升温、暴雪和暖湿化现象以及中国新疆地区融雪洪水灾害风险增大问题,概述了新疆不同类型洪水灾害特征,重点阐述了近年发生频率增加、致灾性强、灾害风险增大,但在新疆未引起重视的融雪洪水的研究进展,对比分析了不同类型融雪径流模型特点和研究现状。综合目前融雪径流模型已有进展和面临的挑战,提出新疆未来研究需考虑融雪径流模型的物理机制和融雪消融过程,以提高预报预警精度。回顾了融雪洪水在新疆的预报预警技术,指出构建高精度预报预警融雪洪水模型所面临的风吹雪、冻土表层雪和雪面雨等关键问题,并提出提升新疆洪水模拟、预报预警、应对突发洪水的综合能力的关键技术,为提升新疆融水洪水预报预警技术提供思路与建议。

This study examines various flood disaster types in Xinjiang,China,encompassing extreme temperature fluctuations,snowstorms,and warm,humid conditions attributed to global climate change.This study focuses on the underexplored issue of snowmelt floods,addressing their escalating frequency,severity,and associated disaster risk in Xinjiang.Using VOSviewer software,this study analyzes the research keywords and collaboration networks among different authors investigating snowmelt floods in Xinjiang.In addition,it scrutinizes the research priorities of scholars at various stages.A comparative analysis of the characteristics and research status of diverse snowmelt runoff models is presented.The study advocates for future research in Xinjiang to delve into the physical mechanisms and snowmelt processes integral to snowmelt runoff models,aiming to enhance prediction and warning accuracy.An assessment of the technologies employed for predicting and warning snowmelt floods in Xinjiang is conducted,highlighting pertinent issues such as wind-blown snow,frozen ground surface snow,and rain-on-snow.Furthermore,the study recommends key technologies to augment the overall capability of flood simulation,prediction,warning,and response to abrupt floods.It also explores strategies for optimizing the use of flood resources.In conclusion,this study furnishes recommendations for refining the prediction and warning technology pertinent to snowmelt floods in Xinjiang.