基于生态网络分析的新疆“水-能-碳”耦合系统特征研究

Characteristics of“water-energy-carbon”coupling system in Xinjiang based on the ecological network analysis

水资源、能源、碳排放是扰动经济社会-生态复合系统的重要因素,单要素变化会产生联动效应,传递生态压力,影响区域和产业的持续发展。以新疆为研究对象,基于2007、2012、2017年新疆投入产出表,运用环境投入产出和生态网络分析模型呈现“水-能-碳”网络系统耦合特征。结果表明:(1)混合水主要用于国内省外流出和居民消费,混合能、混合碳主要用于国内省外流出和资本形成总额。(2)水类网络循环率小于42%,能类网络和碳类网络循环率小于25%,网络系统整体表现出下降趋势。(3)水类网络、能类网络、碳类网络系统鲁棒性向发展停滞一侧倾斜,整体展现出不可持续发展的状态。(4)新疆“水-能-碳”耦合系统各部门间的水系统、能系统、碳系统关联性不强,控制与依赖关系尚处于偶发状态,产业间“水-能-碳”未能形成协同关系。厘清新疆“水-能-碳”耦合系统规律,为实现低碳高效资源综合管理模式提供实证支撑。

Water,energy,and carbon exert significant influence on the intricate interconnected systems of economy,society,and ecology.Alterations in any one of these factors can instigate a cascading effect,transferring ecological pressures and impacting the sustainable development of both regions and industries.Focusing on Xinjiang,China,and utilizing input and output data from 2007,2012,and 2017,this paper employed the environmental input-output model to calculate implicit water consumption,implicit energy consumption,and implicit carbon emissions across 18 industrial sectors in Xinjiang.Additionally,an ecological network analysis model was employed to elucidate system circulation rates,robustness,and control dependencies.The findings revealed the following insights:(1)Mixed water was predominantly allocated to domestic outflow and household consumption,whereas mixed energy and mixed carbon were primarily utilized for domestic outflow and total capital formation.(2)The circulatory rates of water networks remained below 42%,while those of energy networks and carbon networks were below 25%,indicating an overall declining trend in the network system.(3)The system robustness of water networks,energy networks,and carbon networks signified a development stagnation,portraying an unsustainable overall developmental state.(4)A weak correlation was observed among the water system,energy system,and carbon system in various departments within the“water-energy-carbon”coupling system in Xinjiang.Control and dependence relationships are currently in an incidental state,lacking the formation of a synergistic“water-energy-carbon”relationship between industries.This study elucidated the governing principles of the“water-energy-carbon”coupling system in Xinjiang,providing valuable data to support the realization of a low-carbon and efficiently integrated resource management model.