减税降费、财政分权与地方财政风险

Assessing the Impact of Tax Cuts and Fiscal Decentralization on Local Government Financial Risks in China

减税降费是顺应经济新常态要求、深化供给侧结构性改革、推动经济高质量发展的重要举措。然而,随着减税降费力度的加大,地方财政收支矛盾日益突出,财政可持续性在一段时期内面临挑战。文章使用政府报告中关键词词频对减税降费进行了测量,并结合2016~2020年省级面板数据分析了减税降费对地方财政的影响,以及财政分权对减税降费与地方财政风险关系的调节效应。实证结果表明,减税降费会在短期内增加地方政府的赤字风险、地方债务风险和转移支付依赖度,但财政分权对二者关系具有显著的负向调节作用。研究不仅证实了减税降费对财政的潜在影响,而且为更好地落实减税降费政策、深化财政体制改革和防范地方财政风险提供了有力的经验支持和具体的政策建议。

Tax and fee reduction policies are instrumental in aligning with the"economic new normal",advancing supply-side reform,and fostering high-quality economic development.Yet,as the central government amplifies its tax and fee reduction efforts,local governments face a pronounced revenue-expenditure mismatch,threatening their fiscal sustainability.This study utilizes the frequency of tax and fee reduction-related keywords in government reports and provincial panel data from 2016 to 2020 in China to perform a fixed-effect analysis.It examines the impact of tax and fee reductions on the financial risks of local governments,alongside the moderating role of fiscal decentralization.The findings reveal that such reductions may elevate the risk of local fiscal deficits,increase local debt,and heighten reliance on intergovernmental transfers.Conversely,fiscal decentralization can mitigate the financial risks posed by tax and fee reductions.This article's conclusions not only highlight the effects of these reductions on local finance but also offer empirical evidence and practical recommendations to refine the policy execution,deepen fiscal reform,and avert potential financial risks for local governments in China.