基于脆弱性理论的我国中等收入群体比重测度分析——来自CFPS的经验证据

The Measurement Analysis of Chinese Middle-Income Group Based on Vulnerability Theory:Empirical Evidence from CFPS Data

现有对中等收入群体的界定研究存在缺乏理论基础、操作相对机械、结果不够精准等不足。为此,本文基于脆弱性理论将中等收入群体定义为经济收入较高且足够稳定的非脆弱群体,然后依托中国家庭追踪调查数据运用脆弱性估计法和核密度估计法确定中等收入群体脆弱性水平的上下限标准,进而估算我国中等收入群体比重,最后剖析家庭进入和退出中等收入群体的微观驱动因素并研判中等收入群体比重的演变趋势。结果发现,第一,我国中等收入群体的界定标准可以设定为1%和10%的脆弱性水平所对应的家庭人均持久性收入,2014年和2016年对应的比重分别为29.82%和32.71%,而且城乡和地区分布差异较为明显,城镇和东部地区趋于形成橄榄型分配格局。第二,人力资本、职业特征、家庭负担、收入结构是驱动家庭进入到中等收入群体的重要因素;要达到2035年“共同富裕取得更为明显的实质性进展”对应的中等收入群体比重要求,2016—2035年中高收入群体和低收入群体的人均持久性收入增长率至少应达到3%和5%。

Given the shortcomings of existing middle-income group definitions,marked by a lack of theoretical foundation,mechanical operations,and low result accuracy,the paper proposes a refined definition based on vulnerability theory,characterizing the middle-income group as economically stable and non-vulnerable.And then the paper employs vulnerability estimation and kernel density methods to establish upper and lower limits for vulnerability within this group based on the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS),then estimates the proportion of the middle-income group in China,analyzes the micro driving factors of family entry and exit from the middle-income group and judges the evolution trend of the proportion of the middle-income group.The results show that:Firstly,the definition standard of the middle-income group in China can be set as 1%and 10%of the vulnerability corresponding to the family per capita persistent income,and the corresponding proportions in 2014 and 2016 are 29.82%and 32.71%,respectively.There are obvious differences in urban-rural and regional distribution,and urban and eastern regions have tended to form an olive-shaped distribution pattern.Secondly,factors such as human capital,occupation,family burden,and income structure play crucial roles in propelling families into the middle-income group.To meet the 2035 target of“achieving more significant substantive progress in common prosperity”,the per capita persistent income growth rates for the high-income and low-income groups should be a minimum of 3%and 5%,respectively,from 2016 to 2035.