中欧视域下的“一带一路”竞合:演进、成因与对欧影响

Competition and Cooperation within the Belt and Road Initiative in the Context of China-Europe Relations:Evolution,Causes and Impacts on Europe

欧洲在“一带一路”倡议中具有举足轻重的地位。本文首先回顾了中欧视域下“一带一路”倡议在欧洲的演进历程,并梳理了各时期“一带一路”倡议的主要成就和挑战。研究发现,“一带一路”倡议在欧洲经历了“相对冷淡”“相对积极”与“竞合并存”三个时期,欧洲由“相对冷淡”到“相对积极”转变的背后,是“一带一路”倡议自身的表达逐渐完善、项目成果逐渐显现以及欧盟加快经济复苏诉求的共同作用;从“相对积极”到“竞合并存”则是中欧产业竞争加剧、欧盟对中欧关系认知变化、欧盟地缘政治转型下经贸问题安全化及美国因素的综合影响。尽管欧洲对“一带一路”的态度不可避免地会受到政治因素的干扰,但能否为欧洲参与国带来切实的发展利益才是决定中欧“一带一路”竞合长期走向的关键因素。基于全球数据,本文实证检验了“一带一路”倡议的对欧影响。“一带一路”倡议通过贸易促进效应、投资促进效应和基础设施建设促进效应三个机制有效提高了欧洲参与国的经济增长与居民就业水平,部分西方国家对“一带一路”倡议的市场开放性和债务陷阱问题的指责不实,然而“一带一路”倡议并未显著提升欧洲参与国民众对中国的平均印象,民心相通仍然任重道远。

Europe plays a pivotal role within the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI).This article first examines the BRI's progress in Europe in the context of China-Europe relations and outlines its major achievements and challenges encountered in Europe.The BRI has experienced three phases as defined by the approaches of the European countries,that is,relative indifference,relative enthusiasm,and coexistence of competition and cooperation.The shift of Europe's attitude to the BRI from relative indifference to relative enthusiasm was the result of the BRI's self-articulation,increasing visibility of project outcomes,and the EU's drive to expedite its economic recovery.The transition of the phase from relative enthusiasm to competition and cooperation coexistence was influenced by growing industrial competition between China and Europe,alterations in the EU's perception of EU-China relations,the securitization of economic affairs under the EU's geopolitical shift,and the American factor.While Europe's stance on the BRI is inevitably entwined with political factors,this article contends that the crucial determinant for the long-term trajectory of China-Europe collaboration within the BRI hinges on its ability to yield tangible advantages for participating European nations.Based on global data,this article empirically examines the impact of the BRI on Europe.The BRI has effectively boosted economic growth and levels of employment in the participating European countries through trade promotion effects,investment promotion effects,and infrastructure construction promotion effects.Accusations from some Western countries concerning the BRI's market openness and debt trap issues are false.However,the BRI has not significantly enhanced the average public opinion of China in the participating European countries,indicating that the people-to-people bond still needs to be strengthened.