基于Z值模型的旅游企业财务风险分析--以河南省文旅集团为例

Financial Risk Analysis of Tourism Enterprises based on Z-value Model:Taking Henan Cultural Tourism Group as An Example

为了进一步提高目前国内旅游企业风险控制理论研究水平,深入挖掘财务分析中存在的问题,为国内后续财务风险研究工作提供理论数据支持,本研究选取河南省文化旅游投资集团作为实证研究对象,采用定性与定量相结合的方法,计算并分析有关财务指标,并使用公司破产风险评分方法来对文旅集团的财务风险进行全面评价。研究表明:河南文旅集团近5年财务风险变化趋势中,2018年Z值是最高点,2019年达到最低值,2020—2022年逐年上升,说明最近三年河南文旅集团的财务风险有所降低,但是财务状况仍然处在灰色区间内,距离安全区有一定差距。河南文旅集团存在着资产负债率过高、偿债能力不足、融资风险高等问题。最后,本文结合河南文旅集团面临的财务风险问题,分别从融资、投资、营运、经营等多个维度提出财务风险防范和控制的相关策略,在提升该集团财务风险管理水平的同时,更好地满足其战略发展的需要。

In order to further improve the current theoretical research level of domestic tourism enterprise risk control,deeply explore the problems existing in financial analysis,and provide theoretical data support for subsequent domestic financial risk research work.This study selects Henan Cultural Tourism Investment Group as the object of empirical research,uses a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods to calculate and analyze relevant financial indicators,and uses the Z-score model to comprehensively evaluate the financial risks of the cultural tourism group.Research shows that:Among the changes in financial risks of Henan Cultural Tourism Group in the past five years,the best Z value in 2018 was the highest point and reached the lowest value in 2019.It will increase year by year from 2020 to 2022.This shows that the financial risks of Henan Cultural Tourism Group have been reduced in the past three years,but the financial situation is still in the gray range,and there is a certain gap from the safe zone.Henan Cultural Tourism Group has problems such as excessive asset-liability ratio,insufficient solvency,and high financing risks.Finally,combined with the financial risk issues faced by Henan Cultural Tourism Group,relevant strategies for financial risk prevention and control are proposed from multiple dimensions such as financing,investment,operation,and management,so as to improve the company's financial risk management level and better meet the company's strategic development needs.