地缘政治风险与人民币货币锚效应——基于“一带一路”合作国家和地区的实证分析

Geopolitical Risk and Currency Anchoring Effect of RMB:An Empirical Analysis Based on the Belt and Road Cooperation Countries and regions

防范化解地缘政治风险,保持人民币币值的相对稳定,对稳慎推进人民币国际化具有重大意义。通过分析2015年8月至2022年7月“一带一路”合作国家和地区56种货币的汇率月频数据,探究了不同区域的货币锚定人民币的程度,并进一步基于Frankel经典货币锚模型测度了地缘政治风险对人民币货币锚效应的影响。实证结果表明:第一,美元虽仍是大部分地区的锚定货币,但人民币已逐步成长为东欧、东南欧、东南亚和东亚地区钉住的货币锚。第二,地缘政治风险能够显著影响人民币在部分地区的货币锚效应,但是在不同区域和不同贸易开放度的情况下具有显著的异质性。当地缘政治风险上升时,东欧和东南欧地区会更多地锚定人民币以规避汇率风险,而东南亚和东亚地区却会选择降低锚定人民币的权重以寻求汇率稳定;高贸易开放度的国家会更多地锚定人民币,低贸易开放度的国家更可能会减少锚定人民币。研究结果为稳慎推进人民币国际化和精准实施人民币国际化的国别策略提供了参考依据。

Preventing and defusing geopolitical risks and maintaining the relative stability of the value of the RMB are of great significance in steadily promoting the internationalization of the RMB.By analyzing the monthly frequency data of exchange rates of 56 currencies in the“Belt and Road”cooperation countries and regions from August 2015 to July 2022,this paper explores the extent to currencies anchoring to the RMB across different re⁃gions.Furthermore,based on Frankel’s classic currency anchoring model,it measures the impact of geopolitical risks on the currency anchoring effect of RMB.The empirical results show that:Firstly,although the US dollar is still the currency anchor in most regions,the RMB has gradually grown into the currency anchor in Eastern Eu⁃rope,Southeast Europe,Southeast Asia and East Asia.Secondly,geopolitical risks can significantly affect the cur⁃rency anchor effect of RMB in some regions,but there is significant heterogeneity in different regions and trade openness.When geopolitical risks rise,heterogeneity manifests as follows:Firstly,Eastern and Southeastern Euro⁃pean regions tend to anchor to the RMB more robustly to evade exchange rate risks,while Southeast Asian and East Asian regions opt to reduce the weighting of RMB anchoring in pursuit of exchange rate stability.Secondly,nations with high trade openness are more inclined to anchor to the RMB,while those with low trade openness are more likely to reduce RMB anchoring.The finding furnish a referential foundation for the cautious advancement of RMB internationalization and the precise implementation of country strategy for RMB internationalization.