2022年9月16日石林、罗平、江城局地短时强降雨分析

Analysis of Short-term Heavy Rainfall in Shilin,Luoping and Jiangcheng Localities on September 16,2022

9月16日09:00~11:00石林、罗平、江城经历了一次暴发速度快、降水量多、局地边界明显、破坏性强的降水过程。通过分析雷达和地形,得出了“速度值越大,降水越强;坡度越大,降水越强”的结论,指出了预报此类降水的手段是“看速度的变化,注意云团移动方向前方是否有陡峭的山脉”,提出了快速发布的建议,即让智能程序自动检测采用“自下而上”的预警流程;并提出了规避风险的做法,即推广半永久性钢架大棚,使作物生长周期避开灾害多发时间。

From 09:00 to 11:00 on September 16,Shilin,Luoping,and Jiangcheng all had a precipitation with fast eruption speed,large amount of precipitation,obvious local boundaries,and strong destructive force.Through the analysis of radar and terrain,it was concluded that“the higher the velocity value,the stronger the precipitation;The higher the slope,the stronger the precipitation.”It was pointed out that the means to forecast such precipitation was to“look at the change of speed,pay attention to whether there is a steep mountain in front of the direction of cloud movement”;The suggestion of rapid release was put forward,that was,let the intelligent program automatically detect the use of“bottom-up”early warning process;And put forward a way to avoid risks,that was,to promote semi-permanent steel frame greenhouses,so that the crop growth cycle to avoid the disaster prone time.