三穗县强降水特征和致灾阈值特征分析

Analysis on Characteristics of Heavy Rainfall and Disaster Threshold in Sansui County

通过结合三穗强降水过程雨量和县应急部门提供的2015—2020年强降水直接经济损失资料,直观分析经济损失和灾害点分布情况,细化致灾阈值和优化叫应服务阈值。结果表明:三穗县域内1 h降水超过30 mm以上或过程累计的降水量超过50 mm短时强降水易引发次生灾害,过程降雨量在临界雨量阈值及以上且降雨可能持续时,开展相应重点叫应。尤其是重点叫应人口密集、灾害隐患点多的八弓和台烈,若上游乡镇出现2个乡镇过程累积量>50mm的短时强降水时,提前叫应下游地区瓦寨、款场等乡镇。

By combining the rainfall during the heavy rainfall process in Sansui with the direct economic loss data provided by the county emergency department from 2015 to 2020,the economic loss and distribution of disaster points are intuitively analyzed,and the disaster threshold was refined and optimized to meet the service threshold.The results indicated that short-term heavy rainfall in Sansui County,where the 1-hour precipitation exceeds 30 mm or the accumulated precipitation during the process exceeds 50 mm,can easily lead to impact disasters such as house collapse.When the process rainfall was above the critical rainfall threshold and the rainfall may continue,corresponding key measures should be implemented.Especially for the densely populated areas such as Bagong and Tailie,which have many potential disaster hazards,if there was a short-term heavy rainfall with a cumulative amount of more than 50 mm in two upstream towns,the downstream areas such as Wazhai and Qianchang should be notified in advance.