九江市高温热害的时空分布特征

Spatial and Temporal Distribution Characteristics of High Temperature Heat Damage in Jiujiang City

分析九江地区高温热害时空变化特征,为气候变化背景下九江地区水稻种植结构调整和保障水稻高产、高质提供参考。基于九江市9个气象站1981—2019年的气象数据,采用气候倾向率、ArcGis插值、Manner-Kendall检验等方法,分析了九江地区高温热害发生初日、高温热害逐月变化及发生站次的时空变化特征。九江地区高温热害发生初日呈现提早发生趋势,80%保证率发生始期为7月中下旬,且九江东部比西部偏晚发生。在气候变化背景下,高温热害轻度、中度、重度和总站次无突变,但高温热害轻度、中度、重度和总站次呈增加的趋势。九江地区高温热害发生月份主要集中在7月和8月,7—8月高温热害发生站次轻度>重度>中度。气候变化背景下,重度高温热害偏重发生对九江地区水稻产量和品质产生了不利影响。

The purpose of this study was to analyze the spatiotemporal changes of high temperature and heat damage in the Jiujiang region,in order to provide reference for adjusting the rice planting structure in the context of climate change and ensuring high yield and quality of rice.Based on the meteorological data of 9 meteorological stations in Jiujiang from 1981 to 2019,the characteristics of the first day of occurrence of high temperature heat damage,monthly changes of high temperature heat damage and the spatio-temporal changes of occurrence stations in Jiujiang area were analyzed by using the methods of climate tendency rate,ArcGis interpolation,Manner Kendall test,etc.The initial occurrence of high temperature and heat damage in the Jiujiang area showed an early trend,with an 80%guarantee rate occurring in mid to late July,and the eastern part of Jiujiang occurred later than the western part.In the context of climate change,there was no sudden change in the severity,severity,and total station frequency of high temperature heat damage,but there was an increasing trend in the severity,severity,and total station frequency of high temperature heat damage.The months of high temperature heat damage in the Jiujiang region are mainly concentrated in July and August,with mild>severe>moderate occurrences from July to August.Under the background of climate change,the occurrence of severe high temperature heat damage was detrimental to the yield and quality of rice in the Jiujiang region.