基于模糊数学方法及层次分析法的水电工程定量综合风险评价研究及应用

Research and Application of Quantitative Comprehensive Risk Evaluation for Hydropower Projects Based on Fuzzy Mathematics and Analytic Hierarchy Process

针对目前水电工程采用的定性或半定量安全评价方法存在的主观性强、只能针对单一风险进行评价等问题,采用模糊数学方法,通过单一风险分级结果归一化得出模糊关系矩阵,通过层次分析法求得模糊权重集合,两者取交集得出综合风险评价集合,从而定量求得综合风险值及等级,实现了水电工程安全评价从定性或半定量的单一风险评价到定量综合风险评价的重大突破,并在水电工程安全预评价及安全验收评价中均得到了成功应用。

The qualitative or semi-quantitative safety evaluation methods currently used in hydropower projects have many problems,such as strong subjectivity and can only be used to evaluate a single risk.In this paper,the Fuzzy Mathematics method is used to obtain a fuzzy relationship matrix through the normalization of single risk classification result,and the fuzzy weight set is obtained through the analytic hierarchy process.The intersection of the two is used to obtain a comprehensive risk evaluation set,thereby quantitatively obtaining the comprehensive risk value and level.It has achieved a significant breakthrough in safety evaluation of hydropower projects from qualitative or semi-quantitative single risk evaluation to quantitative comprehensive risk evaluation,and has been successfully applied in both safety pre evaluation and safety acceptance evaluation of hydropower projects.