养老金可持续性国际排名比较研究——基于安联与美世的案例分析

A Comparative Study of the International Rankings of Pension Sustainability--Based on the Case Studies of Allianz and Mercer

可持续性是养老金制度的设定目标和重要评估指标之一。人口老龄化、经济全球化、就业形式灵活多样化、家庭结构小型化等,都给养老金可持续性带来挑战。安联保险集团和美世咨询公司持续对全球几十个经济体的养老金制度可持续性进行调查评估并发布年度报告。本文对其评估结果进行横向对比和纵向分析,旨在揭示这两项评估的有效性。结果显示,两家机构评估结果有较强的相似性,横向和纵向稳定性都较好。本文提出,亟需建立更加科学合理的养老金可持续评估指标体系并定期开展评估、公布结果,通过完善养老保险全国统筹、积极发展补充养老金、采取渐进式延迟退休等多措并举不断提高我国养老金体系的可持续性,养老金改革要特别注重可持续性与充足性二者之间的平衡等。

Sustainability is one of the goals and important evaluation indicators in the pension system.The population aging,economic globalization,flexible and diversified forms of employment,and a smaller family structure all pose challenges to the sustainability of the pension system.Allianz's Group and Mercer Consulting Company have been investigating and evaluating the sustainability of pension systems in dozens of economies around the world and published their annual reports.This paper makes a horizontal comparison and a vertical analysis of the results of the evaluations conducted by the two institutions with an view to revealing the effectiveness of their evaluations.The findings show that there are strong similarities in the evaluations of pension system sustainability with a relatively well stability in both horizontal and vertical findings.This paper proposes that it is urgent to establish a evaluation system with a set of scientific and reasonable indicators so as to sustain the current pension system,and carry out evaluations on a regular basis and release the results of these evaluations.By taking such multiple-measures as improving the national pooling of the basic pension system,developing a supplementary pension system,taking a gradually delayed retirement model,the sustainability of the pension system can be improved.While carrying out the pension reform,focus should especially be on a balanced relationship between sustainability and adequacy.