东南亚声索国在南海问题上的“灰色地带”策略——对越南与菲律宾的比较分析

Southeast Asian Claimants'"Gray Zone"Tactics on the South China Sea Dispute:A Comparative Analysis of Vietnam and the Philippines

海洋争端特别是小国与邻近崛起国的海洋争端,为行为体实施“灰色地带”策略提供了天然场域,并且小国奉行“灰色地带”策略的战略倾向尤为强烈。南海问题则是其中的典型案例。自2009年以来,围绕南海问题的四大议题,以越南、菲律宾为代表的东南亚南海主权声索国,通过实施叙事战争、释放威慑信号、民事介入、构筑“捍卫和平、法治”的国际统一战线、底线试探等多种“灰色地带”制华策略,得以实现不少图谋,加剧了中国的“南海困局”。同时,越菲两国的“灰色地带”策略也存在差异,越南的外宣体系更为精细,更重视不对称军事制衡和海警、海上民兵的作用,而菲律宾则更倚重美国,且其对抗强度起伏更大。避免政策摇摆、进一步强化自身权利主张的合法性叙事,是中国更有针对性地反制越南、菲律宾南海“灰色地带”策略的关键。

Maritime disputes,especially those between small countries and their peripheral rising power,provide an instinctive field for actors to implement the"gray zone"tactics,and the small countries have very obvious strategic tendency of pusuing"gray zone"tactics.The South China Sea(SCS)dispute is a typical case.Regarding the four major issues of the SCS dispute,Southeast Asian dlaimants,represented by Vietnam and the Philippines,have mainly implemented five"gray zone"tactics for balancing China since 2009,including narative war,deterrent signaling,civilian intervention,creating an intemational united front of"defending peace and rule of law",and bottom line testing.In general,Vietnam and the Philippines have successfully deteriorated China's"SCS dilemma".At the same time,they have three major differences:Vietnam's extemal propaganda is more elaborate,Vietnam attaches more importance to asymmetric military balance and coast guard and maritime militia,and Philippines is more dependent on the United States and its intensity of confrontation is relatively unstable.In order to contain their"gray zone"tactics effectively for China,avoiding policy swings and strengthening the legitimacy of its narative of claims is critical.