北京市道路塌陷事故影响因素关联分析研究

Research on correlation analysis of factors influencing road collapse accidents in Beijing

为分析北京市道路塌陷事故影响因素之间关联关系,以2011年1月—2021年12月北京市1345次城市道路塌陷事故为基础,采用皮尔逊相关性分析、ArcGIS核密度分析、Apriori关联算法方法构建城市道路影响因素间关联关系,实现对事故发生时间、空间、事故原因之间关联分析。研究结果表明:北京市道路塌陷事故与降水量呈周期性变化,道路塌陷区域主要集中在城区内的部分区域,城区分布及道路位置与事故成因有较强的关联性。研究结果可为北京市城市道路养护和事故预防提供参考。

In order to analyze the correlation between the factors influencing road collapse accidents in Beijing,based on 1345 urban road collapse accidents that occurred from January 2011 to December 2021 in Beijing,the methods such as Pearson correlation analysis,ArcGIS kernel density analysis,and Apriori association algorithm were employed to establish the correlation between the influencing factors of urban roads,so as to realize the analysis of the correlation between the occurrence time,space,and causes of accidents.The results show that the road collapse accidents in Beijing exhibit periodic variations in relation to precipitation levels.The areas prone to road collapse are mainly concentrated in certain regions within the urban area,and there is a strong correlation between the distribution of urban areas and road locations with the causes of accidents.The research findings can provide reference for the maintenance and accident prevention of urban roads in Beijing.