不充分就业对居民消费的影响——来自CFPS微观调查数据的研究证据

The Impact of Underemployment on Household Consumption:Research Evidence from CFPS Micro Survey Data

消费是人民追求美好生活的直接体现,是社会生产的最终目的,是拉动经济持续增长的动力之一。本文构建了不充分就业影响居民消费的理论框架,利用中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据进行了实证检验,并进行了拓展研究。基准回归发现,在控制了户主人口学特征、家庭经济特征、社会网络特征和省份固定效应后,不充分就业显著降低了居民消费。在考虑了不同消费弹性的生存型消费、发展型消费、享受型消费,以及效率工资、零工经济,虚拟变量可能的偏误后,并使用工具变量法和两阶段最小二乘法排除可能存在的内生性问题,发现基准回归结果依旧稳健。机制研究发现,不充分就业显著降低了居民工资性收入,从而降低了居民消费。进一步研究发现,就业质量显著促进了居民消费,对生存型消费、发展型消费、享受型消费均具有显著的促进作用。建议补充完善就业指标体系,摸清不充分就业人口底数,使不充分就业问题显性化;通过财政补贴等方式,增加不充分就业家庭收入,防止居民消费大幅下降。逐步增加劳动者工资水平,促进充分就业,保证工作稳定性,增加劳动者福利保障,提高就业质量,促进居民消费。

Consumption is a direct manifestation of people's pursuit of a better life,the ultimate purpose of social production,and one of the driving forces for sustained economic growth.This paper constructed a theoretical framework for the impact of underemployment on residential household consumption and conducted an empirical test using the data of China Family Panel Studies(CFPS).Baseline regressions shows that underemployment significantly reduces residential household consumption after controlling household head demographic characteristics,household economic characteristics,social network characteristics,and province fixed effects.After considering the possible biases of virtual variables such as survival consumption,development consumption,and enjoyment consumption with different consumption elasticity,as well as efficiency wages and gig economy,and using instrumental variable method and two-stage least squares method to eliminate possible endogeneity issues,it is found that the basic regression results are still robust.The mechanism study indicates that underemployment significantly reduces residents'wage income and thus their consumption.Further study shows that employment quality significantly boosts residential household consumption,with a significant contribution to survival,development,and enjoyment consumption.It is suggested that the employment indicator system should be supplemented and improved to identify underemployed people and make the underemployment problem visible,the income of underemployed households should be increased through financial subsidies and other means to prevent a significant decline in consumption,and that the wage level of workers should be gradually raised to promote full employment,ensure stable employment,increase the welfare protection of workers,improve the quality of employment,and promote household consumption of residents.