中国对RCEP柑橘出口波动的成因研究——基于CMS模型的分析

Study on the cause of the fluctuation of China’s citrus export to RCEP—analysis based on CMS model

依据2005—2021年中国对RCEP柑橘出口贸易数据,运用CMS模型分析了中国对RCEP柑橘出口波动的成因。研究发现,结构效应在中国对RCEP整体出口的增长中发挥正向作用,产品竞争力效应发挥负向作用。RCEP分市场的研究表明,中国对高收入国家的出口增长中发挥主要作用的是产品结构效应和整体竞争力效应,对中高收入和中低收入国家的出口增长中发挥主要作用的是增长效应。基于以上分析,我国应充分利用RCEP协定,不断提升各类柑橘产品质量,增强竞争力,优化柑橘出口的市场结构和产品结构。

Based on the data of China’s citrus export trade to RCEP member countries from 2005 to 2021,this paper uses the CMS model to analyze the causes of China’s citrus export fluctuations.The study indicated that the structural effect plays a positive role in the growth of China’s overall exports to RCEP,while the product competitiveness effect plays a negative role.The research of the RCEP sub-market shows that the product structure effect and the overall competitiveness effect play a major role in the export growth of China to high-income countries,and the growth effect plays a major role in the export growth of middle-income and low-income countries.Based on the above analysis,China should make full use of the RCEP agreement to continuously improve the quality of various citrus products,enhance competitiveness,and optimize the market structure and product structure of citrus export.