解构中国经济韧性——即时监测、联动辨识与贡献分解

Deconstructing China’s Economic Resilience:Real-time Monitoring,Linkage Identification and Contribution Decomposition

本文基于经济增长脆弱性的测算模型,对中国省级经济韧性进行动态测度。在此基础上,运用MAI-AR-SV模型,分别提取中国宏观及区域层面经济韧性的共同因子,旨在系统性监测经济韧性状态变迁的同时,辨识经济韧性间联动机制的演化过程。进一步,通过对省级经济韧性的内生驱动因素进行贡献分解,深入辨析经济韧性的区域协同与异质分化特征。研究发现:(1)中国宏观经济韧性的动态演化路径存在显著的“事件驱动”特征,在极端事件冲击下,经济韧性表现出明显的波动态势。近年来,尽管受到全球重大公共卫生事件冲击,但中国经济恢复较快,继而于2021年由低韧性攀升至高韧性状态,意味着中国经济富有强劲的增长韧性。(2)中国区域经济韧性的状态变迁路径在样本区间内呈现出显著的异质分化特征,但是,随着后疫情时期经济形势的相对稳定,四大区域的经济运行无一例外地步入高韧性增长路径,这表明,中国经济稳定向好的长期发展趋势仍未改变。此外,区域经济韧性间的联动辨识结果表明,区域经济韧性已然由传统的三元分布结构演化为相互促进、优势互补的协调发展格局,具体表现为东部率先引领,同时仿射其他三区的雁阵式联动网络。(3)中国省级经济韧性的贡献分解结果表明,不同区域内省级经济韧性的同步程度存在明显的异质性,其中,东中部地区呈现出显著的“俱乐部收敛”趋向,而西部和东北各省经济韧性则具有多元异化的走势特征,说明区域内部经济发展的不平衡与不充分依旧显见。

This paper is based on a measurement model of economic growth vulnerability to achieve dynamic measurement of China's provincial economic resilience.On this basis,the MAI-AR-SV model is used to extract common factors of China's macro and regional economic resilience,aiming to systematically monitor the changes in economic resilience status and identify the evolution process of the linkage mechanism between economic resil-ience.Furthermore,by decomposing the contribution of endogenous driving factors of pro-vincial-level economic resilience,we can deeply differentiate the regional synergy and het-erogeneity differentiation characteristics of economic resilience.The research finds that:①The dynamic evolution path of China's macroeconomic resilience has a significant"event driven"feature.Under the impact of extreme events,the economic resilience shows an ob-vious fluctuation trend.In recent years,with the continuous improvement of the COVID-19,economic resilience has rapidly recovered,and then climbed from low resilience to high resilience in 2021,which means that China's economy has strong growth resilience.②The state transition path of China's regional economic resilience shows significant hetero-geneity within the sample interval.However,with the relative stability of the economic situation during the post pandemic period,the economic operations of the four major re-gions have all entered a high resilience growth path,indicating that the long-term develop-ment trend of China's economic stability has not changed.In addition,the linkage identifi-cation results of regional economic resilience show that the regional economic resilience has evolved from the traditional ternary distribution structure into a coordinated development pattern of mutual promotion and complementary advantages,specifically,the eastern re-gion takes the lead,and at the same time,it imitates the wild goose array linkage network of the three regions.④The contribution decomposition results of China's provincial eco-nomic resilience show that there is obvious heterogeneity in the synchronization of provin-cial economic resilience in different regions.Among them,the eastern and central regions show a significant trend of"club convergence",while the economic resilience of the west-ern and northeastern provinces has a trend of diversification,indicating that the imbalance and inadequacy of economic development within the region is still evident.