经济政策不确定性、国家治理能力与国家金融化

Economic Policy Uncertainty,State Governance Capacity and State Financialisation

为增进对全球实体经济过度金融化缘起的理解,本文利用全球28个国家和地区2002—2020年的面板数据,从多个角度使用多个指标衡量国家金融化,运用固定效应模型分析了经济政策不确定性对国家金融化的影响及作用机制。实证结果表明,第一,经济政策不确定性不仅使得企业和家庭等微观经济主体金融化,还对国家金融化具有显著促进作用,是全球实体经济过度金融化的原因之一。第二,发达国家和发展中国家金融化的影响因素存在异质性。发展中国家金融化主要是为规避发达国家溢出的或者国内经济变革过程中产生的经济政策不确定性,而发达国家并非如此,而是为攫取其他经济体的利润。第三,国家治理能力会抑制经济政策不确定性对国家金融化的促进作用,并且国家治理能力主要通过抑制经济政策不确定性对股票市场和金融市场的深化来减轻全球经济金融化,而不是通过抑制经济政策不确定性对债务影响的渠道。在经过使用工具变量,主成分分析法等稳健性检验后,基准实证结果仍保持一致。本文研究表明,我们需要保持各国经济政策的连续性、透明性与稳定性,并要有意识地提高国家治理能力水平以抑制全球经济金融化。

In order to improve the understanding of the causes of excessive financialization of the global real economy,this paper uses the panel data of 28 countries and regions from 2002 to 2020 to measure state financialization from multiple perspectives using multiple indicators,and uses the fixed-effect model to analyze the impact of economic policy uncertainty on state finan-cialization and its mechanism.The empirical results show that,first,economic policy uncer-tainty not only financializes micro-economic entities such as enterprises and households,but also significantly promotes state financialization,which is one of the reasons for the excessive finan-cialization of the global real economy.Second,the determinants of financialization in developed and developing countries are heterogeneous.Financialization in developing countries is mainly aimed at avoiding economic policy uncertainties arising from spillover or domestic economic changes in developed countries,which is not the case in developed countries,but at capturing the profits of other economies.Third,state governance capacity will inhibit the promoting effect of economic policy uncertainty on state financialization,and state governance capacity mainly reduces the financialization of the global economy by restraining the deepening of economic pol-icy uncertainty on the stock market and financial market,rather than restraining the impact of economic policy uncertainty on debt.After the robustness test using instrumental variables and principal component analysis,the benchmark empirical results remain consistent.This study shows that we need to maintain the continuity,transparency and stability of national economic policies,and consciously improve the level of national governance capacity to curb the finan-cialization of the global economy.