默许程度与生存空间:缅甸军人政权的国际合法性分析

Acquiescence and Survival:International Legitimacy of the Myanmar's Military Regime

2021年缅甸军人重新接管国家政权后,面临着与以往军人接权不同的国际合法性困境,但这些困境仍是有限的、非致命的。国际合法性并非简单的承认或不承认,而经常体现为介于两者之间的模糊地带,即因外部默许程度的变化而产生差异的国际生存空间。联合国、东盟、域内外大国等国际行为体,基于对缅甸身份、利益、规范和权力认知的差异,给予缅甸军人政权不同程度的默许,使其能够大致维系最低的国际合法性。军人政权要走出国际合法性困境,需尽可能地调和各利益相关方的矛盾,兑现选举承诺,完成政治转型,中短期内势必经历阵痛。基于不同默许程度的衡量,系统梳理不同国际行为体的对缅政策,甄别不同指标的国际合法性,可为判断2021年军人接权后的未来走势提供参考。

When the Myanmar military retook state power in 2021,the regime faced dilemmas of international legitimacy differing from the previous military takeovers.However,these dilemmas are nonetheless limited and non-fatal.International legitimacy is not simply a matter of recognition or non-recognition,but often manifests itself as an in-between ambiguity,a space of survival that varies from here to there,depending on the extent of external acquiescence.Different international players,such as the UN,ASEAN,and major powers both within and outside the region,have given the Myanmar's military regime specific forms of acquiescence based on their expectations of Myanmar's identity,interests,norms,and balance of power,enabling the military regime to maintain a minimum level of international legitimacy.In order to overcome the plight of international legitimacy,the military regime needs to reconcile with various international actors and fulfill its election promise to accomplish its political transition,which is bound to be painful in the short to medium term.Through the measurement of different levels of acquiescence,this paper systematically examines the policies of different international players dealing with Myanmar.Furthermore,by identifying the international legitimacy based on different indicators,here could present a reference for evaluating the future trend of the Myanmar's military regime.