环境规制、技术创新与中国农业能源效率联动效应研究

Research on the Linkage Effect of Environmental Regulation,Technological Innovation and Agricultural Energy Efficiency in China

【目的】识别环境规制、技术创新和农业能源效率之间的同期因果关系,并探讨三者的长短期联动效应。【方法】采用1998—2017年中国省级面板数据,应用DEA模型对农业能源效率指标进行测算,并利用DAG-SVAR模型研究环境规制、技术创新和农业能源效率之间的关系。【结果】我国东部、中部和西部地区的农业能源利用效率平均值分别为0.86、0.72和0.65,呈现明显的地区差异,东部地区较高而西部地区较低。通过有向无环图分析同期因果关系,发现环境规制和技术创新对农业能源效率有正向影响,同时农业受灾率也会影响农业能源效率。进一步进行SVAR分析和方差分解表明,农业受灾率与农业能源效率之间无明显因果关系;环境规制和技术创新在短期内对农业能源效率的贡献率相对较低、分别为1.16%和2.13%,然而,长期来看,它们的贡献率会显著提高,分别达到7.11%和8.24%。此外,农业技术创新不仅受自身的影响,还受到环境规制的影响,随着预测期延长,环境规制对技术创新的促进作用逐渐增强。【结论】基于研究结果,提出如下建议:首先,针对农业能源效率的地域性差异,应采取差异化的改进措施;其次,政府应加强环境规制力度,促进农业能源效率提升;最后,提高农业节能减排技术,实现相关技术创新。

【Objective】The research aims to explore the contemporaneous causal relationship between environmental regulation,technological innovation,and agricultural energy efficiency,and to investigate their long-term and short-term linkage effects.【Method】Provincial panel data of China from 1998 to 2017 was utilized and the DEA model was employed to measure the agricultural energy efficiency indicators.Additionally,the DAG-SVAR model was used to study the interplay between environmental regulation,technological innovation,and agricultural energy efficiency.【Result】The results revealed significant regional disparities in average agricultural energy use efficiency,with values of 0.86,0.72,and 0.65 in the eastern,central,and western regions,respectively.By analyzing the causal relationship through directed acyclic graphs,it was observed that both environmental regulation and technological innovation had a positive impact on agricultural energy efficiency,while it was also influenced by the agricultural disaster rate.Further SVAR analysis and variance decomposition showed that:in the short term,there was no obvious causal relationship between the agricultural disaster rate and agricultural energy efficiency,while environmental regulation and technological innovation had relatively low contribution rates to agricultural energy efficiency,which were 1.16%and 2.13%,respectively.However,in the long run,their contribution rates increased significantly to 7.11%and 8.24%,respectively.Moreover,agricultural technological innovation was not only influenced by itself but also by environmental regulation.As the extension of predictive period,environmental regulation promoted technological innovation progressively.【Conclusion】Based on the research results,we propose the following recommendations:first,differentiated improvement measures should be implemented to address regional disparities in agricultural energy efficiency;second,environmental regulation should be strengthened to foster agricultural energy efficiency;finally,agricultural energy-saving and emission-reduction technologies should be enhanced to achieve related technological innovations.