气候风险、治理能力与多边开发银行的气候融资

Risks,Governance and Climate Finance of Multilateral Development Banks

气候融资是帮助发展中国家应对气候变化的重要政策工具。但自多边开发银行2017年明确提出气候融资目标以来,其资金分配的公平性与合理性持续遭到国际社会质疑。国际组织自主性视角下的分析表明,多边开发银行资金来源的市场化导向与气候项目固有的前期成本高、建设周期长等特征会束缚这类机构在气候融资项目中发挥公共职能。在内部竞争性审核机制中,气候治理能力强的国家在监测体系、配套治理措施与项目申请能力上更具优势,往往更容易得到多边开发银行的青睐;同时,对国际资本市场的资金依赖会促使多边开发银行重视自身的资产负债表健康程度与信用评级,进而更愿意向气候风险小的国家注资。基于2015—2019年全球主要多边开发银行气候融资数据的混合效应回归模型以及针对尼日利亚与摩洛哥两个国家案例的对比分析都支持该观点:气候变化风险与一国收到气候融资的规模呈负相关,气候治理水平则与一国收到气候融资的规模呈正相关。多边开发银行的融资逻辑使得在气候变化中处于弱势地位的发展中国家难以获得足够支持,造成了气候治理的“马太效应”,不利于国际社会共同应对气候变化危机。

Climate financing is a vital policy tool to assist underdeveloped countries in dealing with climate change.However,since the explicit climate financing goals were proposed by multilateral development banks in 2017,the fairness and reasonableness of their fund allocation have been continuously questioned by the international community.Analyses from the perspective of the autonomy of international organizations indicate that the market-oriented nature of the funding sources of multilateral development banks and the inherent characteristics of climate projects,such as high initial costs and long construction periods,constrain these institutions from fulflling their public functions in climate financing projects.Within the framework of an internal competitive review mechanism,countries with strong climate governance capabilities are more likely to be favored by multilateral development banks based on their advantages in monitoring systems,complementary governance measures,and project application capabilities.Simultaneously,the reliance on international capital markets for funding prompts multilateral development banks to pay more attention to the health of their balance sheets and credit ratings,thus being more willing to invest in countries with lower climate risks.A mixed-effect regression model based on global climate financing data from major multilateral development banks from 2015 to 2019,as well as comparative case studies of Nigeria and Morocco,supports the above viewpoint:the scale of climate financing received by a country is negatively correlated with climate change risks and positively correlated with the level of climate governance in that country.The financing logic of multilateral development banks makes it difficult for developing countries in a vulnerable position in climate change to obtain sufficient support,resulting in a"Matthew Effect"in climate governance and hindering the international community's joint efforts to address the climate change crisis.