地方政党能力、央地协调与跨界水政治——基于印度和孟加拉国互动案例的比较研究

The Strength of Local Parties,Central-Local Coordination and the Cross-Border Water Conflicts:A Comparative Study on the India-Bangladesh Water Politics

经过长期演化,南亚跨界水政治已成为非传统安全领域的重要议题,印度和孟加拉国的互动进程即是代表性案例。作者提出的核心问题是,为什么在流域国家均具备了跨界水合作意愿,尤其是印度主导推进合作的背景下,印孟水政治仍然呈现出合作与冲突并存的形态。基于政党中心主义范式,作者提出流域大国的地方政治是合作意愿与外交行为的核心联结,而地方政党能力和央地协调是其塑造多样化跨界水政治的关键变量。具体而言,印度地方政党的动员和治理能力是稳定水合作环境、保障水资源供应的重要基础,联邦与地方政府领导人在合作式联邦主义结构下的纵向党际协调则是印度凝聚水外交共识、缓解代理人问题的关键环节。在建立类型学框架的基础上,作者对印孟两国围绕阿萨姆邦、曼尼普尔邦、西孟加拉邦和比哈尔邦地区的互动案例进行比较研究后发现,只有当高地方政党能力与高央地协调相互配合时,印度才能充分整合物质能力与合作意愿,将高层外交决策转化为双边长效机制。这一研究为探索南亚跨界水政治的复杂面相提供了一定的政策借鉴,对发展中大国参与非传统安全治理的国内政治过程研究也有相应的理论启发。

After a long evolution,South Asia's cross-border water politics has become one of the most important non-traditional security issues,with the water politics between India and Bangladesh being an influential case in point.The research puzzle that this article aims to solve is why water politics still has a dfferent trajectory,and even faces a difficult situation,when both India and Bangladesh have shown a sincere willingness to promote bilateral cooperation.Based on the"Party-Centralism"paradigm,it argues that the basin powers'local domestic politics is the critical link between cooperative willingness and foreign policies.Specifically,the mobilization and management capacity of local parties in India is a sine qua non for stabilizing the cooperative environment and ensuring water supply.In addition,the central-local coordination via inter-party channel on the basis of the India's"cooperative federalism"served as a crucial link to consolidate central-local consensus and alleviate the principal-agent dilemma is also necessary to promote the bilateral water cooperation.Based on the typological framework,this paper proceeds with four comparative case studies on water politics between India and Bangladesh in Assam,Manipur,West Bengal and Bihar to test the explanatory power of the theoretical framework.The research finds that only in the scenario of the""high level of the local parties'strength-high level of central-local coordination"can India best integrate its material capacities with political willingness to lay a long-term foundation for bilateral cooperation with Bangladesh.In addition,this article provides a reference for the study of water politics in South Asia,and is also important for understanding the domestic political processes underlying the international participation of large developing countries in global non-security governance.