摘要
A prediction framework based on the evolution of pattern motion probability density is proposed for the output prediction and estimation problem of non-Newtonian mechanical systems,assuming that the system satisfies the generalized Lipschitz condition.As a complex nonlinear system primarily governed by statistical laws rather than Newtonian mechanics,the output of non-Newtonian mechanics systems is difficult to describe through deterministic variables such as state variables,which poses difficulties in predicting and estimating the system’s output.In this article,the temporal variation of the system is described by constructing pattern category variables,which are non-deterministic variables.Since pattern category variables have statistical attributes but not operational attributes,operational attributes are assigned to them by posterior probability density,and a method for analyzing their motion laws using probability density evolution is proposed.Furthermore,a data-driven form of pattern motion probabilistic density evolution prediction method is designed by combining pseudo partial derivative(PPD),achieving prediction of the probability density satisfying the system’s output uncertainty.Based on this,the final prediction estimation of the system’s output value is realized by minimum variance unbiased estimation.Finally,a corresponding PPD estimation algorithm is designed using an extended state observer(ESO)to estimate the parameters to be estimated in the proposed prediction method.The effectiveness of the parameter estimation algorithm and prediction method is demonstrated through theoretical analysis,and the accuracy of the algorithm is verified by two numerical simulation examples.
