冰上丝路安全:北极航道航行风险度评估的研究

Safety of the Silk Road on Ice:Study on Navigation Risk Assessment of the Arctic Waterway

全球气候变暖导致北极海冰快速融化,北极航道的全面开通成为可能。受航道内冰情与气象海洋等综合因素影响,航道航行存在较大风险。本文主要基于北极海冰密集度卫星遥感观测结果,综合风速、温度、能见度与水深等数据信息,利用权重和风险等级划分法建立了无破冰能力船只在北极航道航行风险评估体系,计算得到日平均航道航行风险度。通过与“雪龙”号科考船在西北航道航行线路与航道航行风险度比对,发现“雪龙”号科考船均沿低航行风险度航道航行。研究结果表明:利用北极航道航行风险评估体系计算日平均北极航道航行风险度是可行的,可为极地科考或航道选取提供准确的航行风险评估信息,对积极推进“冰上丝绸之路”建设具有重要意义。

The rapid melting of Arctic sea ice because of global warming has made it possible that the Arctic shipping routes are fully open.However,due to the influence of ice condition,weather and ocean,there exist great risks in navigation.Based on the Arctic sea ice density from satellite remote sensing observation results,and other data such as wind speed,temperature,visibility and water depth,this study established a navigation risk assessment system in the Arctic waterway for ships without ice-breaking ability using weight and risk grade classification method.Then,this method is used to calculate the daily average navigation risk degree of the waterway.By comparing the navigation routes of"Xuelong"in the Northwest Passage with navigation risk degree of the waterway,it is found that"Xuelong"sailed along the low navigation risk degree route.The results show that it is feasible to use the navigation risk assessment system to calculate the daily average navigation risk degree of the Arctic waterway,which can provide accurate navigation risk assessment information for polar scientific research or navigation route selection,and is of great significance to actively promote the construction of the"Ice Silk Road".