基于自然断点法的共享单车停放区定容方法

Constant Volume Method of Shared Bicycle Parking AreaBased on Natural Breakpoint Method

基于共享单车用户的历史订单数据,分析发现共享单车还用量差值、累计差值与停放区容量之间存在紧密联系,提出引入自然断点法的共享单车停放区容量确定方法.基于物理学中容量与差值的相关性质,使用共享单车还用量累计差值代表一定时间段内的停放区容量,利用自然断点法和累计频率分布曲线初定停放区容量值,采用基于重要性采样和交叉熵优化的小概率事件预测方法对初定容量进行检验.结果表明:基于自然断点法得到的共享单车停放区容量初定值,符合以0.05作为阈值的小概率事件检验结果,证明了容量确定方法的可行性,可满足95%情形下共享单车用户的停放需求.

Based on the historical order data of users in bike-sharing,it is found that there is a close relationship between the difference of consumption and accumulated difference in bike-sharing and the parking area capacity,and a method for determining the parking area capacity in bike-sharing by introducing the natural breakpoint method is proposed.Based on the correlation between capacity and difference in physics,the cumulative difference of bike-sharing consumption was used to represent the parking area capacity in a certain period of time.The parking area capacity was initially determined by using natural breakpoint method and cumulative frequency distribution curve,and the initial capacity was tested by using small probability event prediction method based on importance sampling and cross entropy optimization.The research shows that the initial value of parking area capacity in bike-sharing based on natural breakpoint method accords with the small probability event test result with 0.05 as the threshold.It is proved that the capacity determination method is feasible,which can meet the parking demand of bike-sharing users in 95%cases,and can provide reference for the scale design of shared electric vehicle parking areas,shared power exchange cabinets and other facilities.