基于复合实物期权的高速公路改扩建时机决策方法

Decision-making Method of Expressway Reconstruction and Expansion Opportunity Based on Compound Real Option

文中提出基于复合实物期权的改进经济效益法进行高速公路改扩建时机决策.用复合实物期权量化高速公路改扩建项目的不确定性,运用二叉树模型构建各实物期权的价值计算公式,采用Critic赋权法确定其权重;以项目不确定性价值和现金流价值的相对平衡为目标,选取时机决策指标,构建改扩建时机决策模型,确定高速公路改扩建最佳时机.以广深高速改扩建进行实例分析,结果表明:复合实物期权法确定的广深高速改扩建最佳时机为2026年,与现金流量法和仅考虑延迟期权确定的结果相比,项目价值分别提高了45%和25%,复合实物期权法确定的改扩建时机与现有服务水平法采用饱和度阈值为0.7时确定的2025年较为接近,能兼顾现有规范中服务水平的要求.

An improved economic benefit method based on compound real options was proposed to make the timing decision of expressway reconstruction and expansion.The uncertainty of expressway reconstruction and expansion project was quantified by compound real options,and the value calculation formula of each real option was constructed by binary tree model,and its weight was determined by Critic weighting method.Taking the relative balance between project uncertainty value and cash flow value as the goal,the timing decision-making index was selected,the timing decision-making model of reconstruction and expansion was constructed,and the best timing of expressway reconstruction and expansion was determined.Taking the reconstruction and expansion of Guangzhou-Shenzhen Expressway as an example,the results show that the best time for reconstruction and expansion of Guangzhou-Shenzhen Expressway determined by compound real option method is 2026.Compared with the results of cash flow method and only considering deferred options,the project value has increased by 45%and 25%respectively.The timing of reconstruction and expansion determined by the compound real option method is close to the 2025 determined by the existing service level method when the saturation threshold is 0.7,which can take into account the service level requirements in the existing specifications.