城市群内城市高质量发展趋同俱乐部时空演进及机理

Spatiotemporal evolution and mechanism about high-quality development convergence clubs of cities within urban agglomerations

城市群覆盖的城市是高质量发展的重要空间载体,城市高质量发展趋同俱乐部的相关研究有利于定制不同类型城市高质量发展的路径,促进区域间的共同富裕。以中国13个城市群共174个城市为研究对象,从经济发展、社会保障、社会公平、成果共享、环境质量、空间联系6个方面构建城市高质量发展指标体系并测算,采用传统马尔科夫链和空间马尔科夫链分析其趋同俱乐部的时空演进,进一步剖析形成机理。结果表明:①城市群内城市高质量发展指数整体上升。优化提升阶段城市群内城市发展最快,指数最高;发展壮大阶段城市群内城市发展速度慢,两极分化明显;培育发展阶段城市群内城市整体指数较低,呈波动式上升趋势。环境治理能力、污染排放水平、增长稳定性、社会稳定性,以及交通网络通达性等权重较高。②城市群内城市存在趋同俱乐部现象,低水平趋同俱乐部集中在东北、西部内陆地区;中低水平、中等水平趋同俱乐部主要位于中原、长江中游城市群;中高水平趋同俱乐部围绕高水平趋同俱乐部分布;高水平趋同俱乐部多由城市群中心城市和省会城市构成。③产业结构协调、财政收入、科技创新、邻居效应、城市群内部关联等因素的区域性差异驱动了趋同俱乐部的形成。

The cities covered by urban agglomerations are important spatial carriers of high-quality development.The relevant research on the convergence club of urban high-quality development is conducive to customizing high-quality development paths for different types of cities and promoting common prosperity among regions.This paper takes 174 cities in 13 urban agglomerations as the research objects,and constructs a high-quality development indicator system of cities from six aspects:economic development,social security,social equity,achievement sharing,environment quality and spatial connection.The traditional Markov chain and spatial Markov chain are used to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of convergence clubs,and further examine its formation mechanism.The results show that:(1)The overall high-quality development index of cities within urban agglomeration is rising.In the optimization and upgrading stage,the cities in the urban agglomeration develops fastest and has the highest index;in the development and growth stage,the development of cities is slow and the polarization is obvious;the overall index of cities in the cultivation and development stage is low,showing a fluctuating upward trend.Environmental governance capacity,pollution emission level,growth stability,social stability,and traffic network accessibility have higher weights.(2)There is a phenomenon of convergence clubs in cities within urban agglomerations,and the low level convergence club is concentrated in the northeast and western inland areas;the middle and low level and middle level convergence clubs are mainly located in the urban agglomerations of the Central China Plains and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River;the middle and high level convergence club is distributed around high level convergence clubs;the high level convergence club is mostly composed of central cities of urban agglomerations and provincial capitals.(3)The local differences of factors such as industrial structure coordination,fiscal revenue,scientific and technological innovation,neighborhood effect and the internal linkages of urban agglomerations drive the formation of convergence clubs.