环境目标约束能够助推重污染制造业升级吗——来自“十一五”减排目标的证据

Can Environmental Target Constraints Promote the Upgrading of Heavily Polluting Manufacturing Industries?Evidence from the Emission Reduction Targets of the 11^(th) Five Year

在我国积极推进绿色发展的背景下,环境目标约束对引导制造业减排增效与绿色转型具有重要意义。将2006年“十一五”规划实施的环保目标责任制视为一项准自然实验,基于1998—2009年中国工业企业数据和各省(自治区、直辖市)“十一五”期间化学需氧量减排目标数据构造了“年份-城市-二位数制造业”三维面板集,使用三重差分模型实证检验了环保目标责任制对重污染制造业升级的影响。研究发现:环保目标责任制显著促进了重污染制造业升级,这一效应并非短期存在,并且在市场化程度越不完善、污染治理能力越低的地区,该效应越明显;机制分析表明,环保目标责任制一方面通过城市间、城市内行业间和行业内企业间的资源再配置效应推动了重污染制造业升级,另一方面通过增加污染企业创新数量、强化污染企业的策略性创新行为实现重污染制造业升级;进一步研究发现,环保目标责任制借助重污染制造业升级效应提高了行业能源效率和清洁程度,实现了节能减排,推动了重污染制造业绿色转型。因此,应设立具体并滚动调整的减排目标,打破市场分割,引导各地区依照比较优势打造产品,提高政府对高质量创新的评估准确性与扶持力度,充分发挥环保目标责任制对制造业高质量转型升级的赋能作用。

In the context of actively promoting green development in China,the environmental target constraints are of great significance for leading the energy conservation,consumption reduction and green transition of the manufacturing industry.Regarding the target responsibility system of envi-ronmental protection implemented in the 11"Five-Year Plan as a quasi-natural experiment and based on the data of Chinese Industrial Enterprises Database from 1998 to 2009,as well as the COD emis-sion reduction targets data of the provinces(the autonomous regions or the municipalities directly un-der the central government)during the 11 Five-Year Plan period,this paper constructs a three-dimen-sional panel set of"year-city-two-digit manufacturing industries".It then conducts an empirical test of the impact of the target responsibility system of environmental protection on the upgrading of the heavily polluting manufacturing industry with the difference-in-difference-in-difference model.The re-sults show that the target responsibility system of environmental protection has significantly promoted the upgrading of heavily polluting manufacturing industries,and that this effect does not exist in the short term.In the regions with lower degree of marketization and lower pollution control ability,this effect is more obvious.The mechanism analysis reveals that,on the one hand,the target responsibility system of environmental protection has promoted the upgrading of the heavily polluting manufacturing industry through the resource reallocation between cities,intra-city industries and intra-industry enter-prises;on the other hand,it has realized the upgrading of the heavily polluting manufacturing industry through increasing the innovation numbers of the polluting enterprises and strengthening the strategic innovation behaviors of polluting enterprises.Further research reveals that with the help of the upgrad-ing effect of the heavily polluting manufacturing industry the target responsibility system has improved the industrial energy efficiency and cleanliness,achieved energy conservation and emission reduction,and thus promoted the green transition of the heavily polluting manufacturing industry.Therefore,it is necessary to establish specific and rolling emission reduction targets to break market segmentation,guide the regions to create products based on comparative advantages,improve the evaluation accuracy and support of governments for high-quality innovations,and fully leverage the empowering role of the environmental protection target responsibility system in the high-quality transformation and upgrad-ing of the manufacturing industry.