美国通货膨胀对中国通胀预期的影响研究

Research on the Impact of US Inflation on China's Inflation Expectation

本文基于理性预期与预期形成的传染病学模型,将外部通货膨胀因素引入通货膨胀预期形成机制之中,采用MTARDL模型实证检验美国通货膨胀对中国通货膨胀预期的作用机制。研究结果表明,美国通货膨胀在中国通货膨胀预期形成机制中具有明显的非对称特征,其上涨对通货膨胀预期的催化效果远大于下降造成的抑制效应,而且美国通货膨胀对国内通货膨胀预期的影响存在结构性突变,相比于断点前,其影响效果在断点后更加强劲且作用过程趋于复杂化。与此同时,国内货币政策对通货膨胀预期的调控效果正逐渐下降。研究结果显示,国内货币当局在对公众通货膨胀预期引导过程中应更加注重美国通货膨胀的动态变化,同时优化货币政策的传导机制及政策效率。

Based on the epidemiological model of rational expectations and expectation formation,this paper introduces external in-flation factors into the inflation expectation formation mechanism and empirically tests the mechanism of the effect of U.S.inflation on China's inflation expectations using the MTARDL model.The results of the study show that U.S.inflation has obvious asymmetric characteristics in the formation mechanism of inflation expectations in China,and its catalytic effect on inflation expectations is much greater than the dampening effect caused by a decline,and there are structural mutations in the impact of U.S.inflation on do-mestic inflation expectations,and its effect after the breakpoint is stronger and the process tends to be more complicated than before the breakpoint.Meanwhile,the moderating effect of China's monetary policy on inflation expectations is gradually declining.The findings imply that China's monetary authorities should focus on the dynamics of inflation in the U.S.in guiding the inflation expecta-tions of the public,while optimizing the transmission mechanism and policy efficiency of monetary policy.