全球金融周期、中心国家货币政策与跨境资本流动——基于中心外围国家结构的解释

Global Financial Cycle,Monetary Policy of Center Countries and Cross-border Capital Flows——An Explanation Based on the Structure of the Center and Periphery Countries

长期观察发现,全球金融周期波动、美联储货币政策和全球跨境资本流动相伴而生,三者之间存在较为稳定的内在联系。本文从全球经济金融体系中的中心——外围国家结构入手,基于各国国际分工角色,构建了四部门全球金融周期模型,演绎了全球金融周期、中心国家货币政策和跨境资本流动的函数关系,发现单位有效劳动平均资本变化引发的全球通货膨胀波动是全球金融周期的成因,并通过向量误差修正模型(VEC)验证了全球金融周期、中心国家货币政策和跨境资本流动的长期均衡关系。根据研究结论建议各国在管理跨境资本流动时,必须要考虑全球金融周期的趋势性影响。

Long term observations have found that global financial cycle fluctuations,Federal Reserve monetary policy,and global cross-border capital flows coexist,and there is a relatively stable internal connection among the three.This paper starts from the structure of center and periphery countries in the global economic and financial system,and based on the international division of la-bor roles of each country,constructs a four-sector global financial cycle model.It deduces the functional relationship among the glob-al financial cycle,center country monetary policies,and cross-border capital flows,and finds that global inflation fluctuations caused by changes in average capital per unit of effective labor are the causes of the global financial cycle.The vector error correc-tion model(VEC)is used to verify the long-term equilibrium relationship among the global financial cycle,center country monetary policies,and cross-border capital flows.It is recommended that countries should consider the trend impact of the global financial cy-cle when managing cross-border capital flows.