基于蒙特卡罗法的舰船目标毁伤概率分析

Damage probability analysis of ship target based on the Monte Carlo method

针对半穿甲战斗部侵彻舰船目标的毁伤概率研究提出一个新的毁伤概率计算公式,对该公式中的侵彻概率、弹体安定性满足要求的概率、冲击波毁伤概率和击中概率分别进行计算与分析。基于蒙特卡罗法仿真模拟半穿甲战斗部对舰船目标的打击,进行100次的独立重复仿真试验并且每次进行1000次的模拟打击,求得各个设备被击中的概率。基于拉丁超立方随机抽样方法对毁伤概率公式中的相关参数进行有效性验证,验证结果表明拟合的函数关系与仿真结果之间误差在工程允许的范围内。

A new formula for calculating the damage probability of the semi-armor-piercing warhead penetrating the ship target is presented.The penetration probability,the probability of the projectile's stability meeting the requirements,the damage probability of shock wave and the hit probability are analyzed and calculated respectively.Based on the Monte Carlo method,the attack of the semi-armor-piercing warhead on the ship target was simulated,and 100 independent repeated simulation tests were carried out and 1000 simulated strikes were carried out each time to obtain the probability of each device being hit.Based on the Latin hypercube random sampling method,the effectiveness of the related parameters in the damage probability formula is verified.The verification results show that the error between the fited function relationship and the simulation result is within the allowable range of the project.