基于反事实框架的生态保护红线政策成效评估——以宁波市为例

Evaluating the Performance of Ecological Conservation Red Line Based on Counterfactual Framework:A Case of Ningbo City

研究目的:检验生态保护红线是否具有维护生态系统服务的政策成效。研究方法:建立基于反事实框架的政策评估逻辑,集成InVEST模型、分组回归和断点回归,评估宁波生态保护红线的政策成效。研究结果:(1)在空间反事实维度上,无论是生态保护红线政策实施前、后,生态系统服务在红线保护区保持稳定,由红线保护区向红线保护区外出现明显的下降“跳跃”效应。(2)在时间反事实维度上,政策实施前,红线保护区生境质量和水源涵养均值比红线保护区外分别高0.060和56.71;政策实施将两者差距分别提升至0.062和62.09,而水土保持在红线保护区内外的差距缩小。(3)基于空间—时间双维反事实逻辑的政策评估部分地证实了生态保护红线对维护生态系统服务的积极成效。(4)宁波生态保护红线的政策成效得益于其特殊的“以山为基”红线格局和对红线管制的时空衔接。研究结论:生态保护红线对维护生态系统服务具有一定成效,但受区域地表环境和政策管控方式制约,需因地制宜制定管控策略和推进红线保护区内外的管理衔接。

The purpose of this study is to examine whether ecological conservation red line has positive impact on ecosystem service.The research methods are as follows.Policy evaluation logic based on counterfactual framework is established,and InVEST model(Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs),grouping regression,and breakpoint regression are used to analyze the performance of ecological conservation red line in Ningbo.The result shows that:1)in the spatial counterfactual dimension,ecosystem services within space of ecological conservation red line keep stable either before or after the policy implementation of ecological conservation red line.There is a significant gap of ecosystem service between the space within and that beyond the ecological conservation red line,showing a jump effect of increase.2)In the temporal counterfactual dimension,before the implementation of red line policy,average habitat quality and water conservation within the space of ecological conservation red line are 0.060 and 56.71,respectively higher than those beyond the space of ecological conservation red line.The implementation of red line policy stimulates the gap of habitat quality and water conservation between the two spaces along the ecological conservation red line to 0.062 and 62.09.However,the gap of soil conservation between the spaces within and beyond the red lines is narrowed.3)The policy performance evaluation based on the spatial-temporal counterfactual logic confirms the positive impact of ecological conservation red line in maintaining ecosystem services.4)The positive performance of ecological protection red line is attributed to Ningbo’s mountain-based pattern of red line and the spatial-temporal coordination for red line management.In conclusion,the ecological protection red line can pose positive effect on maintaining ecosystem services,which is determined by regional environment and policy strategies.Therefore,it is necessary to propose strategies in light of local conditions and promote the policy coordination between within and out of red line.