重点国有林区林业职工老龄化趋势表征、潜在影响与应对机制

Trend Characteristics, Potential Impact and Coping Mechanism of theAging of Forestry Workers in Key State-owned Forest Areas

重点国有林区改革完成后面临经济社会转型的复杂形势,林业职工老龄化趋势必然引发林区经济社会结构与功能、林区生态建设实践方面的深刻变化。首先,从林区人口流动发展历程出发,归纳演绎林业职工老龄化发展趋势与典型特征,包括林业职工老龄化风险较高、老龄化林业职工陷入多重生计困境、住房风险依然存在、家庭财产性收入不足;然后,深入分析林业职工老龄化趋势的潜在影响,如不利于多种经营下的产业转型、生态资源保护质量难以保证、家庭生计持续脆弱风险加剧;最后,提出应对林区林业职工老龄化趋势的措施机制,包括多元化产业发展机制、现代化技术支持机制、专业化职工培育机制、持续化社会保障机制。

⑴Background——There are obvious signs of population outflow in Northeast China in recent years.The aging of forestry workers will bring severe challenges to the protection of natural forest resources and ecological construction in forest areas.This will inevitably lead to profound changes in the economic and social structure and function of forest areas and the practice of ecological construction in forest areas.⑵Methods——On the basis of sorting out the development process of population flow in the key state-owned forest areas,according to the data of the people s livelihood monitoring project of the key state-owned forest areas from 2012 to 2021,this paper discusses the trend characteristics of the aging of forestry workers in the key state-owned forest areas and analyzes its potential impact.⑶Results——First,the aging risk of forestry workers was higher.The age distribution of forestry workers was concentrated in the age range of 40-60 years old,and the proportion of young workers was relatively stable,which is difficult to provide sustained and strong support for the economic growth and industrial transformation of state-owned forest areas.Second,the aged forestry workers and their families had multiple livelihood difficulties.First of all,the family medical burden of the aged forestry workers was greater.The ratio of direct medical expenditure to total income showed an overall upward trend,and this ratio rose to 9.7%in 2020,and some indirect medical costs such as transportation costs,escort costs and opportunity costs also brought a certain burden to the families of the aged forestry workers.Secondly,the housing risk of forestry workers families still existed.There were still a considerable number of forestry workers living in the forest farms in the mountains,and the transportation was inconvenient.The housing conditions had not been thoroughly repaired and improved for many years.Finally,the property income of forestry workers families was insufficient.In the total income composition of forestry workers families,the wage income accounted for more than 80%and the increase was limited,and the property income always accounted for less than 5%.⑷Conclusions and Discussions——The aging of forestry workers in key state-owned forest areas has some potential impacts.First,the aging weakens the driving role of labor force factors on the development of a series of understory industries,and is not conducive to the industrial transformation under multiple operations and the development of various successive industries.Second,the aging is not conducive to the protection of ecological resources under the requirements of high quality,and makes it difficult to guarantee the quality of ecological resource protection in forest areas in the future.Third,the aging the decline in household income and the increase in medical expenditure caused by the aging of forestry workers will further affect the resilience of families livelihoods of the forestry workers,making their ability to cope with various kinds of economic and social risks continue to decline,and the vulnerability risk of household poverty will increase.Based on the above analysis,the following policy recommendations are put forward:First,implement a diversified industrial development mechanism.Improve the ability of long-term development of forest industry by scientifically planning the succession industry system of state-owned forest areas and introducing the capital operation and market operation mechanism.Second,implement a modern technical support mechanism.In forestry development and ecological protection,increase capital investment,improve the application level of high-tech,and reduce the work intensity of forestry workers.Third,implement a professional staff training mechanism.Improve the management process of talent training,introduction and use,actively explore the introduction mechanism of forestry talents,and guide migrant workers to return to their hometowns to start businesses or employment.Fourth,implement a sustainable social security mechanism.Improve the social welfare security system,give full play to the multiple advantages of mutual assistance for the elderly,and establish a comprehensive,multi-level and sustainable social security mechanism for the forest workers.