基于过程分解的电网弹性综合评估方法研究

Research on comprehensive evaluation method of power system resilience based on process decomposition

电网弹性表示系统抵御极端灾害并恢复正常运行的能力。为提高电网恢复能力评估水平,提出一个综合考虑电网运行过程的弹性评估方法。该方法通过将弹性曲线分解为停电和恢复过程,揭示了从标准电力系统数据中提取弹性指标过程。首先,从电网历史数据生成弹性曲线,将该曲线分解为停电过程和恢复过程,并且这些过程通常在时间上重叠。接着,根据采用弹性事件统计数据来表征该事件的过程,并根据这些统计数据推导出弹性评估指标,如恢复持续时间、客户停电小时数以及停电和恢复率。然后,将这些指标的平均值表示为停电次数的函数。随后建立恢复持续时间的可变性模型,其能以95%的置信度预测最大恢复持续时间。最后,对所提方法的性能进行数值仿真,结果验证了其有效性。

Grid resilience indicates the ability of a system to withstand extreme disasters and return to normal operation.To improve the level of grid resilience assessment,a comprehensive evaluation method that takes into account the operation processes of the power grid is proposed.By decomposing the resilience curves into outage and restoration processes,this method reveals the process of extracting resilience indicators from standard power system data.Firstly,resilience curves are generated from historical grid data,which are decomposed into outage processes and recovery processes.These processes usually overlap in time.Next,the resilience events in the data are used to characterize the statistics of these processes.The resilience assessment indicators,such as restoration duration,customer outage hours,and outage and restoration rates,are derived from these statistical data.Then,the means of these indicators are expressed as functions of outage number.Subsequently,a variability model for the restoration duration is developed that can predict the maximum restoration duration with 95%confidence level.Finally,the performance of the proposed method is analyzed numerically.The results validate its effectiveness.