辽东山区秋季红枫树观赏期气候预测研究

Climate Prediction Study of Autumn Red Maple Viewing Period in Liaodong Mountain

为研究气象要素对辽东山区红枫叶变红时间、变红程度的影响,提高景区观赏时间的准确性,利用2012~2021年本溪关门山景区、羊湖沟红枫树景区物候资料和当地自动气象站观测资料,采用相关分析、多元线性回归等气候诊断分析方法,建立辽东山区红枫观赏期气候预测模型。结果表明:辽东山区红枫叶初始变红的时间与红叶始期前10 d的平均气温、平均最低气温、平均最高气温、日照时数、积温呈正相关;与前期7月份的平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温呈负相关,与8月份降水量呈极显著正相关(P<0.01)。通过相关关系建立3个预测红叶变色始期的方法:其一,通过红叶始期前3天低温天气预测,日最低气温8℃及以下时枫叶开始变色,6℃及以下时枫叶开始变红,4℃及以下时枫叶变红达到最佳观赏期;其二,通过红叶始期前10 d日最低气温、活动积温、日照时数的累加值建立短期预测模型,模型回代拟合率为88.8%;其三,利用7月平均最高气温和8月降水量建立了中期预测模型,模型回代拟合率为77.2%。辽东山区秋季红枫叶变观赏期的短期、中期气象统计预测模型具有一定的准确率和可操作性。

In order to study the influence of meteorological elements on the time and degree of redness of red maple leaves in the Liaodong Mountains,and improve the accuracy of viewing time in scenic spots.Using the phenological data of red maple trees in Guanmen Mountain of Benxi and Yanghugou from 2012 to 2021 and the meteorological data from local automatic stations to establish the climate prediction model of red maple viewing period in Liaodong Mountain area by adopting the climate diagnostic analysis methods such as correlation analysis and multiple linear regression.The results showed that the time of initial reddening of leaves in the Liaodong Mountainous area is positively correlated with average temperature,average minimum temperature,average maximum temperature,sunshine hours,and cumulative temperature during the first ten days of the red maple leaf initiation period;It is negatively correlated with average temperature,average maximum temperature,and average minimum temperature in July of the previous period,and it is highly significant positively correlated with August precipitation(P<0.01).Three techniques were developed using the correlation to forecast when red leaf deterioration would start.Firstly,the maple leaves changed color when the daily minimum air temperature was 8℃or lower,changed red when it was 6℃or lower,and turned red when it was 4℃or lower to reach the ideal ornamental period thanks to the forecast of low temperatures three days before the onset of red leaf discoloration.Secondly,the number of hours of sunshine in the 10 days before the start of red leaf discoloration,the active cumulative temperature,and the cumulative value of the daily lowest air temperature were used to build the short-term prediction model,this model had a fit rate of 88.8%.Thirdly,a medium-term prediction model was created using the average maximum temperature in July and the precipitation in August,this model had a fit rate of 77.2%.The short-and medium-term meteorological statistical prediction model for the change of ornamental period of autumn red maple leaves in the Liaodong mountainous area has a certain accuracy and operability.