区域贸易协定会引起碳排放跨国转移吗?

Will Regional Trade Agreements Cause Cross-Border Carbon Emission Transfer?

本文旨在探讨贸易全球化是否导致碳排放跨国转移效应。本文对1991—2019年170个国家(地区)的样本进行分析,以国家(地区)签订区域贸易协定为准自然实验,探讨区域贸易协定与碳排放跨国转移的因果关系。研究发现:区域贸易协定的签订会导致欠发达经济体的温室气体排放增加幅度显著高于发达经济体。在双边贸易方面,欠发达经济体的高耗能行业出口额显著增加,且增速高于低耗能行业。在应对措施方面,基于全球合作的碳减排承诺和碳排放权交易市场将有利于欠发达经济体实现脱碳和减排目标,避免落入碳转移陷阱。在建设中国式现代化以及努力实现碳达峰、碳中和的大背景下,本文对国际经验的研究有助于我国探索实现绿色发展的中国道路,在促进经济增长的同时减少碳排放。

With the continuous deepening of globalization,the profound integration of economies and industries among nations propels global economic development.However,it also reveals a profound contradiction between environmental protec⁃tion and economic growth.This paper aims to investigate whether trade globalization leads to transnational carbon emission transfer effects.Based on an analysis of a sample of 170 countries(regions)from 1991 to 2019,this study employs the signing of re⁃gional trade agreements(RTAs)by countries(regions)as quasi-natural experiments to explore the causal relationship be⁃tween RTAs and transnational carbon emission transfers.The empirical results of this study are as follows.Firstly,leveraging RTAs as exogenous shocks for carbon emissions,this paper provides direct evidence of cross-border carbon emission transfers.In other words,the signing of regional trade agree⁃ments leads to a significantly higher increase in greenhouse gas emissions in developing economies compared to developed economies.Secondly,after the signing of RTAs between two countries(regions),the growth in bilateral trade volume of high-energy-intensive products exceeds that of low-energy-intensive products.Thirdly,explicit emission reduction commit⁃ments,the establishment of clearly defined carbon emission trading systems,and other green financial innovations contribute to improving a country's(region's)carbon emission situation and reducing the risk of foreign countries(regions)implement⁃ing carbon emission transfers.In pursuit of Chinese path to modernization and the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality,the study on interna⁃tional evidence aims to assist China charting its own path toward green development and reducing carbon emissions while pro⁃moting economic growth.To mitigate the risks associated with transnational carbon emission transfer,this paper proposes three recommendations.Firstly,Enhance bilateral(or multilateral)trade agreements within existing RTA frameworks to consider potential cross-border carbon transfer factors;secondly,deepen bilateral(or multilateral)cooperation in the climate field to jointly address the challenges posed by climate change;thirdly,actively advocate for the establishment of a green international financial system in China,thereby promoting sustainable development and climate change mitigation goals.