新兴市场弹性汇率制度应对美联储货币政策双重冲击的减震器作用研究

The Role of Flexible Exchange Rate Regime in Emerging Market as a Buffer for Absorbing the Dual Impacts of the Fed's Monetary Policy

美联储货币政策由量化宽松转为量化紧缩会产生外溢效应。文章选取43个国家2002—2019年的月度面板数据验证新兴市场国家采用弹性汇率制度在应对美联储货币政策及信息披露冲击时的减震器作用。研究发现:这种减震器作用存在差异性,应对跨境资本无规则流动时,弹性汇率制度是单纯货币政策紧缩冲击的放大器、信息披露经济向好冲击的减震器,且后者的减缓作用大于前者的强化作用。为实现经济和金融稳定,建议新兴市场国家应立足本国国情,选择合适的汇率安排。各国央行应加强沟通交流,提高政策透明度,进一步完善资本账户管理制度。

The shift of the Fed's monetary policy from quantitative easing to quantitative tightening will have spillover ef⁃fects. Using a monthly panel data set of 43 countries from 2002 to 2019, this paper verifies the shock-absorbing role of the flex⁃ible exchange rate regime in the emerging market countries, buffering against the dual impacts of adjustments in the Fed's mon⁃etary policy. The results show that the shock-absorbing role varies. The flexible exchange rate system simplifies pure monetarypolicy shocks, while it acts as a reducer for information disclosure shocks. Moreover, the buffer effect of the latter is greaterthan the intensifying role led by the former. To ensure the monetary and financial stability in emerging market, this paper pro⁃poses that these economies should choose an exchange rate regime that fits their domestic situation well. It is necessary for thecentral banks to enhance communication, improve policy transparency and complete capital account management.