基于LMDI模型的湖南省物流业碳排放脱钩研究

Research on Carbon Emission Decoupling of Logistics Industry in Hunan Province Based on LMDI Model

以湖南省物流业碳排放为研究对象,先测算出2010-2020年物流业碳排放量,再基于此运用LMDI模型分解湖南省物流业碳排放驱动因素,并通过OECD脱钩模型计算物流业碳排放脱钩指数,最后分析湖南省物流业碳排放与经济发展之间的脱钩关系。研究表明:整体上物流业经济产出效应和人口规模效应对湖南省物流业碳排放增长呈正向驱动促进作用,其中经济产出作用占据主导地位,能源效率效应对湖南省物流业碳排放的增长经历了“正向促进—反向抑制—正向促进”三阶段的影响变化。能源结构效应对湖南省物流业的碳排放增加呈现先反向抑制后正向促进的影响。湖南省物流业碳排放存在一定的弱脱钩效应,能源效率是脱钩强弱的关键。为实现湖南省物流业与碳排放的绝对脱钩,应当降低物流成本、发展绿色低碳物流,并与其他行业协调发展。

Taking the carbon emissions of the logistics industry in Hunan Province as the research object,the carbon emissions of the logistics industry from 2010 to 2020 were first measured and calculated.Based on this,the LMDI model was used to decompose the driving factors of carbon emissions of the logistics industry in Hunan Province,and the decoupling index of carbon emissions of the lo-gistics industry was calculated through the OECD decoupling model.Finally,the decoupling relationship between carbon emissions of the logistics industry and economic development in Hunan Province was analyzed.The research has shown that overall,the economic output effect and population size effect of the logistics industry have a positive driving and promoting effect on the carbon emissions growth of the logistics industry in Hunan Province.Among them,the economic output effect plays a dominant role,and the energy effi-ciency effect has gone through three stages of impact changes on the carbon emissions growth of the logistics industry in Hunan Prov-ince:positive promotion,reverse inhibition,and positive promotion.The energy structure effect has a reverse inhibitory and then posi-tive promoting effect on the carbon emissions increase of the logistics industry in Hunan Province.There is a certain weak decoupling effect in the carbon emissions of the logistics industry in Hunan Province,and energy efficiency is the key to the strength of decoupling.In order to achieve absolute decoupling between the logistics industry and carbon emissions in Hunan Province,it is necessary to re-duce logistics costs,develop green and low-carbon logistics,and coordinate development with other industries.