数字经济发展推动全球产业结构升级了吗?

Has the development of the digital economy driven global industrial structure to upgrade?

随着数字技术的普及应用,快速崛起的数字经济成为推动全球产业结构升级的关键力量。基于2007—2020年面板数据,通过构建多维数字经济发展综合指数,探究数字经济发展对全球产业结构升级的影响及作用机理。研究发现:数字经济发展能显著促进全球产业结构升级,且与产业结构合理化之间存在非线性关系。机制检验表明:数字经济通过提高劳动生产率和制度质量来抑制产业结构均衡状态的偏离,并推动产业结构向中高端方向发展。异质性分析发现:数字经济对高收入国家产业结构合理化、中高收入国家产业结构高级化的促进作用显著。以上结论对探索中国数字经济可持续发展,加快数字技术创新与应用进程,助推产业结构升级具有一定的参考意义。据此提出加大数字技术开发和创新力度、加快建立适应数字经济发展的新的制度环境和制度安排、因地制宜采取差异化政策措施等建议。

Summary:The rapid development of the digital economy is profoundly changing our production,life,and governance with unprecedented speed,scope,and impact.According to the data published in the White Paper on the Global Digital Economy(2022),the value added scale of the digital economy in 47 countries reached USMYM38.1 trillion in 2021,accounting for 45.0 percent of GDP.This rapid development continues to have profound and far-reaching impacts on the economic operation of all countries and has become a new driving force that unleashes the superimposed multiplier effect of digitization and promotes industrial structure transformation and upgrading.A significant manifestation of this is how it optimizes and upgrades industrial structures by providing important support for countries to occupy favorable positions in international division of labor and competition.Therefore,clarifying how the digital economy affects industrial structure upgrading is significantly relevant for exploring sustainable development in China’s digital economy as well as other countries’economies to promote industrial structure upgrading.To answer these questions,we first apply the comprehensive index system method to construct an index of digital economic development from three dimensions:digital infrastructure,digital technology innovation environment,and national digital competitiveness.We then adopt the entropy weighting method for specific measurement.Subsequently,based on the 2007-2020 panel data,we select a two-way fixed-effects model to empirically test the industrial structure upgrading effect of the development of the digital economy and explore the linear relationship between them.On this basis,we add the square term of the digital economy as an explanatory variable to explore its nonlinear effect on industrial structure upgrading.Furthermore,by constructing a mechanism test model,it is clarified that the digital economy can promote industrial structure upgrading through two action paths:improving labor productivity and institutional quality.Finally,we further analyze the heterogeneous effects of the digital economy on industrial structure upgrading in sample countries with different levels of economic development.After conducting empirical tests,we have obtained the following findings:firstly,the development of the digital economy plays a significant role in promoting the rationalization and advancement of the global industrial structure;secondly,there exists a non-linear relationship between the digital economy and industrial structure upgrading,and specifically,there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between the digital economy and the rationalization of industrial structure,but no inverted U-shaped relationship with industrial structure upgrading;thirdly,the digital economy can significantly enhance labor productivity and institutional quality,thereby promoting industrial structure upgrading,which indicates that improving labor productivity and institutional quality are two important ways to promote industrial structure upgrading;finally,there are heterogeneous differences in how the digital economy affects industrial structure upgrading among countries at different levels of developmen,and the development of the digital economy can notably promote both rationalization of high-income countries’industrial structures and upgrading of upper-middle income countries’industrial structures.Our work makes a significant contribution to investigating the impact and mechanism of digital economy development on the upgrading of the global industrial structure in the era of digital economy.Firstly,we explain and verify the intrinsic mechanism through which the digital economy promotes industrial structure upgrading,highlighting two main pathways:labor productivity and institutional quality.Secondly,we empirically examine how digital economy development promotes industrial structure upgrading from an international perspective,considering the heterogeneity among sample countries with different income levels.This provides direct empirical evidence for continuous optimization and upgrading of various countries’industrial structures.Although this paper is an empirical study on the role and mechanism of digital economy development in promoting industrial structure upgrading from an international perspective,the research conclusion has important policy implications for China to achieve high-quality development by vigorously developing the digital economy and accelerating industrial structure optimization and upgrading.Firstly,we need to intensify the development and innovation of digital technologies to provide continuous impetus for the growth of the digital economy.Secondly,we should focus on breaking down policy“distortions”that hinder optimal allocation between new data factors and traditional production factors,thus realizing free flow and optimal allocation of production factors.Finally,due to significant disparities in digital economy development levels among China’s different provinces and cities,differentiated policy measures should be adopted according to local conditions.