基于EBC框架的中国光伏产业减排情景分析

Scenario Analysis of China’s Photovoltaic Industry Emission Reduction Based on EBC Framework

科学核算和评估光伏产业的减排潜力,可以为推动光伏产业发展、促进碳达峰和碳中和目标的实现提供重要依据。本文以全产业链视角构建了从产能建设到市场应用的光伏产业碳排放核算体系,基于“环境因素变动-产业主体行为反应-光伏产业减排”的逻辑提出了新的情景分析框架,设计了光伏产业减排的情景分析马赛克决策模型。结果表明2021年中国光伏产业实现了减排,并进一步推演得到6种代表性情景下的光伏产业减排贡献,发现中国光伏产业未来很大可能将为碳中和贡献10%左右的减排份额,并据此提出了若干对策建议。

Estimation of the potential of photovoltaic(PV)power generation can provide important basis to enhance PV development and achieve the“3060”carbon peak and carbon neutral goal.This paper constructs a carbon emission accounting system for the whole process of PV industry from production capacity construction to market application from the perspective of the industry chain,proposes the logic of“changes in environmental conditions-behavioral responses of industrial actors-emission reduction of PV industry”,and designs the EBC scenario analysis framework and a mosaic decision model for scenario analysis.The accounting results show that China's PV industry has achieved emissions reduction in 2021,and six representative scenarios of PV industry emission reduction is generated.PV industry will contribute 10%for the carbon neutral goal in the future.Finally some suggestions are put forward.