双循环测度与国内大循环内生动力研究

Measurement on dual circulation and endogenous dynamics analysis of domestic circulation

提出分解增加值的完整框架,将乘数分解及结构分解方法推广至多国多部门投入产出模型,定量分析2000-2020年我国的双循环演变趋势及国内大循环内生动力.研究发现:我国经济发展对内循环的依赖整体呈“U”型,拐点出现在2006年.拐点左侧,内循环下降的主要原因是我国不断降低的增加值率;拐点右侧,最终需求率、完全需求系数和增加值率的提高依次成为内循环上升的主要动力.消费相较于投资一直是内需中影响内循环变动的主要因素.我国外循环的依赖国家由发达国家为主转向发展中国家、发达国家并存.制造业发展对内循环的依赖从2008年起由降转升,该时段服务业对制造业的完全需求系数增加、产业结构高级化、制造业增加值率提升在制造业内循环上升中依次占据主要地位.数字产业内循环的变化由自身的最终需求率或非数字产业的完全需求系数主导,非数字产业内循环变动的主导产业主要是自身.

Propose a complete framework for decomposing value added,the multiplier decomposition and structural decomposition methods are extended to the multi-country and multi-sector input-output model to quantitatively analyze the dual circulation evolution trend of China and the endogenous power of the domestic circulation from 2000 to 2020.Research Findings:The overall dependence of China’s economic development on the domestic circulation is in a“U”shape,and the inflection point appeared in 2006.On the left side of the inflection point,the main reason for the decline of the domestic circulation is China’s decreasing value-added rate;on the right side of the inflection point,the improvement of the final demand rate,the toal demand coefficient and the value-added rate become the main driving force for the domestic circulation to rise in turn.Compared with investment,consumption has always been the main factor affecting the domestic circulation change in final domestic demand.The countries relying on the external circulation have shifted from developed countries to developing countries and developed countries.The dependence of the development of manufacturing industry on the domestic circulation has also increased since 2008. During this period, the increase of the toal demand coefficient ofthe service industry for the manufacturing industry, the upgrading of the industrial structure,and the improvement of the manufacturing value-added rate have successively occupied the mainposition in the cyclical rise of the manufacturing industry. The change in the domestic circulationof digital industry is dominated by its own final demand rate or the total demand coefficientof non-digital industry, and the dominant industries in the domestic circulation of non-digitalindustry are mainly themselves.