中国产业数字化水平的区域差异及分布动态演进

Regional Differences and Dynamic Evolution of Distribution of Digitalization Level of Chinese Industries

文章基于数字基础设施、数字化人才、数字化投入、数字化产出、绿色发展程度5个维度构建了我国产业数字化发展水平的评价指标体系,并运用熵值法、Dagum基尼系数、Kernel密度估计、Moran’s I和Markov链对2013—2020年中国30个省份的产业数字化水平、区域差异及分布动态演进趋势进行实证分析。结果表明:中国的产业数字化水平总体上较低,但呈现逐年递增的趋势,东、中、西三大地区的产业数字化水平表现为高、中、低的分布特征;中国产业数字化水平差异在逐年缩小;东、中、西部地区的产业数字化水平总体呈现上升趋势,但东部地区存在显著的极化现象;Moran’s I散点图表明多数省份处在第一、三象限,表明中国各省份产业数字化水平存在显著的空间集聚现象;从Markov链转移概率矩阵可知,产业数字化水平高的地区有更强的稳定性,低水平地区逐渐向邻近高水平地区转移。

Based on the five dimensions of digital infrastructure,digital talents,digital input,digital output,and green development degree,this paper constructs the evaluation index system of digitalization level of Chinese industries,and uses the entropy method,Dagum Gini coefficient,kernel density estimation,Moran’s I and Markov chain to empirically study the industrial digitalization level,regional differences and dynamic evolution law of distribution in 30 provinces of China from 2013 to 2020.The results go as the following:China’s industrial digitalization level is generally low,but it shows an increasing trend year by year,and the industrial digitalization level of the eastern,central and western regions is characterized by high,medium and low distribution.The difference in the level of industrial digitalization in China is narrowing year by year.The industrial digitalization level in the eastern,central and western regions presents an overall upward trend,but there is a significant polarization phenomenon in the eastern region.The Moran’s I scatter plot shows that most provinces are in the first and third quadrants,indicating that there is significant spatial agglomeration in the level of industrial digitalization in various provinces in China.From the Markov chain transfer probability matrix,it can be seen that regions with high levels of industrial digitalization have stronger stability,and that low-level areas gradually shift to neighboring high-level areas.