库岸滑坡涌浪链生灾害动力学研究进展

RESEARCH ADVANCES IN DISASTER DYNAMICS OF LANDSLIDE TSUNAMI

随着大规模梯级水电工程的不断发展,库岸滑坡的稳定性及潜在的涌浪灾害将是影响水电工程(群)全生命周期安全运行的关键因素。本文分别从库岸边坡稳定性及滑坡涌浪研究两个方面,对目前国内外的相关研究成果进行了系统总结和分析。在库岸边坡稳定性研究方面,越来越多的研究集中于降雨、库水位变动等水动力环境下的库岸边坡的水-岩耦合作用及稳定性演化的分析方法方面。通过对滑坡涌浪的物理模型试验法、解析法及数值模拟法3大类方法的优缺点分析,随着数值计算技术的飞速发展其在滑坡涌浪链生灾害动力学分析方面体现出其强大的生命力。库岸滑坡从渐进破坏→启动→高速运动、涌浪→堆积、涌浪传播与爬坡等构成了滑坡涌浪灾害链的不同阶段,也是一个连续的灾害过程,而不同阶段灾害特点又有很大的差异。然而,目前通常将库岸滑坡稳定性分析和涌浪分析分割开来,从而不能很好地反应这一灾害链过程。基于高性能数值计算技术,从全过程的物理力学机制出发构建灾害链的模拟和分析方法,将是目前的发展趋势,也是从解决库岸滑坡涌浪链生灾害动力学分析的关键。

With the development of large-scale cascade hydropower projects,the stability of the landslide in the reservoir and the potential tsunami disasters are one of the key factors affecting the safety of the full life cycle of the projects.In this study,the research advances in the stability and tsunami analysis methods of the bank slopes in the reservoir are analyzed systematically.For the stability analysis method of the slopes in reservoir,more and more researches focus on the analysis methods of water-geomaterials coupling and the stability evolution of the slopes under hydrodynamic environments such as rainfall and variation of the water level.The comparisons among the advantages and disadvantages of the physical model tests,the analytical methods and numerical simulation methods for the landslide tsunami,and the rapid development of numerical methods can show great advantages in simulation of the landslide tsunami.The progressive failure from start to sliding with high speed,the entry water and generating tsunami to depositing,and the propagation and climbing of the tsunami compose the different stages of the whole process of the landslide tsunami.It is also a continuous disaster process,although the disaster behaviors of different stages are obvious different.However,the slope stability analysis and the tsunami analysis are usually separated at present.So it is very difficult to reflect the whole process of the disaster chain of landslide tsunami.Using the high-performance numerical methods,building the analysis methods for landslide tsunami according to the physical and mechanical mechanisms of its whole disaster process would be the development trend and the key at present.