黄河流域数字经济与高质量发展耦合互动关系研究

Study on Coupling Coordination and Interactive Relationship Between the Digital Economy and High⁃Quality Development in the Yellow River Basin

为了厘清黄河流域数字经济与高质量发展现状、探究二者的耦合协调与互动关系,进而为黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展战略的实施提供参考,从理论上分析了黄河流域数字经济与高质量发展之间的互动机制,基于黄河流域64个地级市(州)2011—2020年的面板数据,测度了数字经济发展水平与高质量发展水平,运用耦合协调度模型实证分析了二者之间的耦合协调关系,并利用PVAR模型探究数字经济与高质量发展的互动关系。主要结论如下:1)黄河流域数字经济发展水平在研究期有所提升,但仍普遍较低且存在明显的地区差异,具有东高西低特征,呈现分别以济南、郑州、西安、太原、呼和浩特为核心的圈层状分布格局;2)黄河流域高质量发展不平衡问题突出,存在两极分化的情况,呈现明显的圈层结构,形成了分别以济南、郑州、太原、西安、兰州等省会城市为核心的高质量发展水平高值区;3)黄河流域数字经济与高质量发展耦合协调度逐年上升,但协调水平整体上还较低,当前仅实现了由轻度失调水平向濒临失调水平的跨越,耦合协调度在空间上呈现下游>中游>上游的特点;4)黄河流域数字经济与高质量发展均具有较强的自我依赖性,高质量发展对数字经济发展的促进作用较为明显,而数字经济发展对高质量发展的推动作用有待加强。

In order to clarify the current situation of digital economy and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin,explore the coupling coordination and interaction between these two aspects and provide a reference for implementing ecological protection and high-quali-ty development strategies in the Yellow River Basin,the interactive mechanism between digital economy and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin was analyzed theoretically.Based on the panel data 2011 to 2020,a total of 64 prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin were selected.This paper measured the development level of the digital economy and high-quality development level,empirically exam-ined the coupling coordination relationship between these two dimensions by using coupling coordination degree model and explored the inter-active relationship between the two through a PVAR model.The results of the study show that a)the development level of the digital economy in the Yellow River Basin has shown improvement during the research period,however,it remains generally lower with significant regional differences,which forms a circle distribution pattern with Jinan,Zhengzhou,Xi’an,Taiyuan and Hohhot as the core cities,and has the spa-tial distribution characteristics of high in the east and low in the west.b)The imbalance of high-quality development in the Yellow River Ba-sin is prominent,characterized by the polarization and a distinct circle structure.This has resulted in the formation of a high-value area with Jinan,Zhengzhou,Taiyuan,Xi’an,Lanzhou and other provincial capitals as the core cities.c)The coupling coordination degree between the digital economy and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin has been increasing annually,but the overall coordination level remains insufficient.The current implementation only achieves the transition from the mild imbalance to near imbalance levels,and the coor-dination degree also illustrates a pattern of lower reaches>middle reaches>upper reaches.d)Both the digital economy and high-quality devel-opment in the Yellow River Basin are characterized by self-reliance.High-quality development plays a significant role in promoting the digital economy,while the role of the digital economy in enhancing high-quality development needs to be reinforced.